Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
amathevs21 joined. amathevs21 Hello Joe's amathevs21 Hello everybody BigBlueSky joined. amathevs21 Hello Big Blue Sky? BigBlueSky Hi JoeRoss joined. tipiring joined. amathevs21 Hello everybody nice to meet you again. amathevs21 Hello Joe how are you? IWin joined. amathevs21 Happy New Year Joe, sorry I'm late. amathevs21 Hello I win how r u today? philippe joined. JoeRoss Hello everyone philippe Hi from shanghai to all, hi Joe. amathevs21 HELLO JOE IWin Hallo Mr. Joe Ross and Mr. amathevs... always mantaps philippe Joe, thanks again for your reply to my email 10 days ago amathevs21 Hi Iwin. JoeRoss We received a lot of panicked emails yesterday about the stock market :-) amathevs21 Yes Joe, since 2 days ago all Stock Markets are Bearish. Sherri joined. JoeRoss We even got calls from Europe wanting to know what is going on. Some calls were from family over there. It makes me wonder what the media are all saying. amathevs21 IC IWin Will the stock market weaken this week? Sherri Whew! What a crazy market. When you said in the Chart Scan we were in for a wild year, you weren't kidding! JoeRoss How about in Asia. Were they making big news about the stock market? amathevs21 Seems Stock Market will have got a support by a PPT (Plunge Protection Team) has been made by Mr. President Bush last week. amathevs21 Asia follow the DJIA too. JoeRoss
Iwin: I think the stock market is responding well to the interest rate cut. And don't be surprised if they cut another 50 basis points next week at their regular meeting. philippe
Well, in Asia, they do, each day.. but in china, the market has been going on since too many months from action of small investors... now they use the situation in the US as a reason to go out. IWin IC Mr. Joe. philippe Joe, do u think long term bonds would go higher in yield, given the situation ? Or maybe a bit too early? JoeRoss Of course, I don't know the future. I sold my crystal ball for fortune telling, when I was very young. I sold it to raise money so I could start trading ;-) JoeRoss phillippe: The market sets the interest rate for bonds, not the FED. So we will have to see what traders are going to do. philippe Yes, but i mean because of the dollar situation, whether it seems realistic to u to have higher bond yield. JoeRoss
I do know that they are going to cut the bond futures in half. The bonds will no longer be $31.25/tick. They will be $15.625 beginning early in March.. Notes also will be cut in half and be only $7. 8125/tick. Sherri Does tick size affect the chart patterns we have come to know and love? JoeRoss
phillippe: If the U.S. wants to continue to be able to sell bonds, it will have to pay higher interest on bonds than on short term paper. This will especially be true if the dollar continues to slide. philippe That's what i thought. Thanks Joe. JoeRoss
sherri: No it doesn't affect the chart patterns. It just makes it more expensive to trade. You have to do 2 times as many contracts to get the same bang for the buck as before. Sherri Oh crumb. JoeRoss They are telling us it will be more cost effective.
But it looks to me to be more cost defective.Sherri Will the margins be reduced? philippe Do u know of any good spread to use this situation bond/dollar? Or should we just check the spread charts? JoeRoss
Sherri: Margins have nothing to do with tick size. Margins are computed primarily on volatility. As long as volatility remains high, margins will remain high. JoeRoss Many brokers have been canceling day trading margins and making traders put up full margin even for day trades. Sherri Oh, I see, the contract is the same size, just broken up in smaller bits... JoeRoss phillippe: Just check the spread charts. philippe Thanks. ronnie joined. ronnie Good evening, Joe. JoeRoss
Sherri: I'm not sure whether or not the contract will stay the same size. They haven't said yet. And of course the entire matter needs approval from the CFTC. But most likely they will approve. JoeRoss Hi ronnie. Sherri Has the bond been that volatile that they need more margin? ronnie Did you get a chance to look at that article I posted? JoeRoss
Sherri: When markets become volatile, the exchanges get panicky and they raise margins; even on stuff that is not that volatile. JoeRoss
But right now there is much fear in the markets and much fear at the FED. They are seeing the cookie crumbling and what we are seeing is a desperate attempt to save the economy. JoeRoss Or at least made to look like an attempt to save the economy. JoeRoss ronnie: Yes i saw the article. But it is really old news. ronnie Our economy has turned into one big Enron. ronnie Keep up the fake news so the insiders can cut and run. JoeRoss ronnie: that is correct. Sherri Did the Fed cut really turn the market around yesterday and today? ronnie The Fed is the reason why we are in a mess in the first place. JoeRoss Sherri: I believe they brought in the Plunge Protection Team. spreadtrader joined. Sherri Yeah, it was just a little too "magical." JoeRoss They should be made to stand trial, be convicted and put into prison. ronnie God willing Joe. ronnie It is the racket of the millennium. JoeRoss The FED's official duty is to protect the dollar. But look at what they have done with it. spreadtrader Joe, their real "duty" is to protect the banks. Sherri I wonder how many times a PPT can realistically step in? ronnie Printed as much as they could so they could steal it through contracts and defense spending. amathevs21 Can you see the PPT (Plung Protection Team) work is well done. spreadtrader At our expense. philippe Joe may i ask u what u think of DX M08 / US M08 ? Could that be a bet over 42? acman joined. JoeRoss
Sherri: They are there to prevent a crash. They cannot stop the market from going down. All they can do is try to create a soft landing. amathevs21 IC ronnie Joe what's a good hedge right now, gold or foreign deposits? Sherri Thanks. You know, this is scary. What will average people do. JoeRoss phillippe: You are showing a ratio spread. Did yo mean DX M08 - US M08? philippe Yes, joe. philippe I mean - not / sorry. Sherri I wonder if brokers notify you when the margins go up, or is that up to the trader... JoeRoss phillippe: yes what? a ratio spread or a differential spread. philippe A differential. JoeRoss phillipe if you do the spread you must use multipliers. JoeRoss It looks to me that you should be long bonds and short DX. JoeRoss
Sherri: Some brokers notify and others let it be your responsibility. Of course it really is always your responsibility to look up margins before you trade.. IWin
Mr. Joe Ross. I'm a beginner in Foreign trading. I've become afraid (lose money) to enter the market while indicator tells me to enter the market. How do I recover from my fear? JoeRoss iwin: That's easy! Stop using indicators and start using your head, especially your eyes. JoeRoss iwin: Learn to trade what you see. Sherri Iwin, why don't you paper trade until you get more confidence? acman
Joe, I did that this morning. Looked at the 20 min USH08 and saw it couldn't take out the 122-28 high. I did a spread with the FVh08. JoeRoss
phillippe: both sides of that spread need to be multiplied by 1000. In that case the spread is going down. To turn it around you need to be long bonds. JoeRoss acman: Good move. JoeRoss I looked at the euro and figured there is no way it is going to go to 1.41. So I sold 25 Puts. Sherri Acman, please what are these USH08 and FVH08? acman sherri: bonds is USH08 and FVH08 is 5 year notes. I like the move better than the 10vs30. Been trading it over a year on and off. JoeRoss ronnie: A good hedge is gold AND foreign deposits acman The move on the 10 vs 30 was 3.6 to 2.7 or around $900, the fv-us was 7.9 to 6.3 which is $1600. Sherri Oh, so you're doing a spread of like 10 year bond to 30 year bond? JoeRoss
sherri: Average people are going to suffer the most. The middle class always pays the piper for those who run the country. Sherri Then what about those who are already poor. This is terrible. JoeRoss Sherri: The poor will get their handouts. JoeRoss sherri: They have very little to lose. JoeRoss The U.S. would be fine if they got rid of the FED and the IRS and kicked the crooks out of Congress at the same time. philippe Washington D.C. a ghost tow...nice idea, actually ;-) acman I think the beatles had a great song called revolution. Isn't that what this country was all about once, independent thinking and freedom from excessive government. philippe Joe, how is the option newsletter going? Any chance to have something soon? The idea is really good. JoeRoss
phillippe: They could turn Washington into a theme park. Then we could all take our kids to Washington Land. Just think of the diversions they could have. Slide down the Washington Monument. Build a roller coaster around the Capitol building, etc. Sherri Joe, when all this nastiness gets going, will we still be able to trade and make some money - not a killing necessarily, but maybe a reasonable income? philippe Throw some tomatoes at the real president and so on..! JoeRoss phillippe: We are working on it. I think we are pretty close but no definite date yet. it will be stock options and futures options. JoeRoss Sherri: As long as there are markets you will be able to trade them, but not necessarily allowed to trade those outside the U.S. philippe Ok thanks Joe. JoeRoss We could retire the national debt with the money from the theme park. ronnie I worry most is the war aspect of tough times. Sherri Yes. ronnie China is now big and rich. ronnie The next obvious step is to militarize. ronnie Only so much of resources in the world... JoeRoss ronnie: They are already militarizing. ronnie I mean to use their military might. philippe Joe, do you think some asian currencies are undervalued? except RMB..? maybe Indian Rupee? acman
When I was at club med 2 weeks ago, there were about 6 chinese. Usually there are none. They have money to travel now. JoeRoss
My contacts in China tell me that the Chinese know they will have to fight a war against the U.S. and maybe the rest of the West. They are already preparing. They are working on a rocket system that will destroy our satellites and knock out all of our communications. JoeRoss Without GPS, the U.S. goose is cooked. ronnie That's comforting to know. ronnie And Hilary made a huge speech at AIPAC basically guaranteeing war if she wins, with the whole Middle East. JoeRoss Rupee is undervalued, but the Indian stock market went up too fast and is due for a correction. acman Who will buy their stuff? philippe
Many analysis go that way, indeed. i read a book a few times ago from a French analyst. when u view US/China through this filter, all what they say does make sense.. even Iraq would be a move against china, actually. according to those analyses. ronnie You don't think war with Iran and possible Syria is immanent? Sherri Agreed!!! JoeRoss acman: The Chinese will consume their own stuff. They are rapidly becoming their own best consumer. ronnie If the Hubberts "peak oil" theory is even close to being correct. ronnie Oil rich regions will be the next battle grounds. philippe We still have a chance against China: Should attack them at lunch time! The country stops completely at that time, and they even stop thinking ;-) JoeRoss ronnie: I don't think the U.S. will go to war directly with Iran and Syria. They will use Israel. philippe
The best way to slow down China would be to introduce democracy. We would have the party of landowners against the party of cities and so on... but will never work... and the people don't even want it, here. ronnie Possibly, but Israel doesn't have the manpower to keep a sustain fight against possibly all of its neighbors. ronnie Meaning US involvement for sure, just look how convenient being in Afghan and Iraq are. ronnie Look at what's in the middle. JoeRoss ronnie: Israel won't have to fight anyone else once they use the bomb. philippe hmm only 10 minutes left.. Joe, how about u recommend us 1 or 2 good trades? ronnie If they do, then its all out war. philippe Let's buy Israel and short Syria? ronnie Long oil for the next 10 years. JoeRoss
I recommended selling euro strangles a couple of days ago in the forum. They are still good. Sell Calls and Puts for expiration on Feb. 8. Only at risk for 12 trading days. philippe Long dreams and short reality, that always works. JoeRoss :D philippe Ok thanks Joe, we take good notice. jerrym joined. JoeRoss
One guy did a little research and came up with an interesting spread. Long cattle and short wheat. He says it is at a multi-year low. ronnie Ron Paul for president! JoeRoss Ron Paul would do a good job, but they would probably assassinate him before he got much done. ronnie That's what everyone says. jerrym Would gold and the dollar be a reasonable spread trade? ronnie The establishment would never allow him to get that close. JoeRoss jerrym: Yes, it would be a very good spread. acman
Soybeans were down 50 cents for July today. The meats and grains are doing well as everyone is worrying about their stocks. I did a SM-S a few times the past 2 weeks. SM is low in comparison to soybeans apparently according to the historicals. JoeRoss
I had to drive somewhere today and so I listened to Rush Limbaugh on the radio. He had a very interesting commentary about Barak Obama. He says the power blacks in this country are pushing against Obama. Jesse Jackson, Charles Wrangle, Sharpton and the other blacks who have power, are actually engaging in a race war against their own kind. philippe Why, according to him? ronnie The funny thing about these elections are: no matter who wins, we all lose. philippe Maybe only because it would endanger their own personal leadership? JoeRoss If Hillary wins, she is beholden to them for the black vote. But Obama owes them nothing and they would lose power. JoeRoss True we end up being the losers. philippe Yeah, red tape is the only winner of every election, like once Kissinger said. ronnie A bunch of super elites who will only look out for their own pockets. JoeRoss They consider Obama to be an upstart. JoeRoss So they are doing everything they can to defame him. But it might backfire on them because it is making a lot of blacks very angry. ronnie Only God can save the world now from its own demise jerrym
A radio commentator in Denver recently asked how black leaders get to be anointed. His contention was that the white media and establishment appoint them as leaders (as opposed to white leaders who are elected). Interesting comment.... JoeRoss I believe that ronnie. JoeRoss It's my bed time everyone. ronnie Because we are really close to destroying it... JoeRoss See you next week. jerrym Night.... ronnie Guten Nacht Herr Ross JoeRoss Learn to be traders so you can make a buck when you need it. philippe cu Joe, thanks for all your answers and your time Sherri Thanks again, Joe. It's always good to know you're there, especially in times like these. Sleep with the angels! G'nite JoeRoss Saluti amathevs21 Goodnight Joe IWin thanks a lot for advice mr Joe amathevs21 Thanks Joe IWin good night JoeRoss I had a rough day. Too much to do . amathevs21 Thanks everybody amathevs21 Yoa IWin thanks everybody. good night amathevs21 Same too you amathevs21 see u next week tipiring bye ::smile Next Chat with Joe Ross:
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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