Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
| tony44 joined. | |
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| Dean joined. | |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Good evening |
| Sherri joined. | |
| JoeRoss | HI Dean, Marsh, Sherri, Tony |
| Sherri | Hello from the frozen North. It's -40 tonight! |
| JoeRoss | I bet it's colder where Dean is :) |
| tony44 | Hi Joe. |
| Dean | Hi Joe....brrrrr. |
| JoeRoss | We are suffering through a chilling 77 degrees here. |
| Sherri | Where are you, Dean? |
| Dean | NW North Dakota |
| Dean | You're in Minn? |
| tony44 | Nice, -10 here, windchill feels like -30. |
| JoeRoss | That's the tropical part of North Dakota ;) |
| Sherri | Oh!!! North Dakota would beat Minneapolis for sure. |
| Dean | T-shirt weather. |
| Sherri | Then where is tony44? Maybe it's snow baby night! |
| JoeRoss |
An 90-year-old man goes to see his doctor for a physical. "Why do you want a physical?" asks the Doctor. "I'm going to get married." "At your age? I know you're fit and healthy, but a honeymoon and marriage can be pretty strenuous. How old is your bride-to-be?" "She's 25. And I know it's strenuous." "Wow. That is going to be really strenuous and dangerous." The old man pauses, thinks for a moment, then replies, "Um, well...... If she dies, she dies." |
| Dean | 9 months of winter and 3 months of bad sledding. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi netwonc. |
| netwonc | Hi Joe, guess everyone is a little late tonight. |
| netwonc | How about that oil, and England nationalizing that bank, things are changing soooo fast. |
| netwonc | Lots happening now though... and a eclipse of the moon tonight too. |
| JoeRoss | If Oil closes above 110, it will kill any stock market rally caused by the easy money the FED is washing the economy with. |
| Dean | Hey Joe, don't you have a birthday this month? |
| Sherri | I have two little questions this evening: on the electronic trading platforms, the rollover of contracts occurs automatically. Is there anything worrisome about that? |
| JoeRoss | sherri: Just make sure you roll any open positions you have. |
| netwonc | I think that is a waste anyhow and not going to really do any good for the real economy... |
| JoeRoss | Dean: April 7, I will be a dyslexic 37. |
| marsh | Really, Joe? You don't look a day over 30! |
| Dean | I thought it was this month, but Happy Birthday come April. |
| JoeRoss | Thanks, Dean. |
| Sherri | Well, that's the thing. If I'm reading it right, if I've checked "continuous" the contract would be rolled by them on some date. Maybe I should uncheck "continuous" and do it myself manually in plenty of time....? |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: What software are you using? |
| Dean | Say hello to the "English Teacher" for me Joe, I still remember the soup she made for me. |
| Sherri | I'm embarrassed to say Strategy Runner - but I'm a slow learner. |
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| JoeRoss | I will do that, Dean, I'll let the teacher know. |
| tony44 |
Joe, the grains are moving up again. They have been making some nice TTE entries on the corn and beans on this move. How much higher do you think the grains can go? |
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| JoeRoss | Sherri: I like when the contracts automatically roll based on most volume. |
| zendre | Hi. |
| JoeRoss | But you still have to manually take care of any trades you are in. |
| JoeRoss | tony: The grains can go a lot higher. Wheat much higher--still a worldwide shortage. |
| Sherri | Oh, o.k. I'll ask them if that's what happens. Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | Beans a shortage coz acreage is going to corn. |
| JoeRoss | Corn because of the stupid ethanol thing. |
| JoeRoss | Hi zendre. |
| tony44 | so beans are at $14....some guys are talking $20, seems crazy. |
| JoeRoss | tony: not crazy. Maybe good to go long beans and short bean oil??? |
| tony44 | The thing that is really interesting is that the Chinese are stockpiling soybeans at $14. |
| JoeRoss | Bean Oil won't go up nearly as fast as beans coz bean oil is replaceable with palm oil and canola oil, etc. |
| acman | Where do you find out the stockpiling info? |
| Dean | And all the diesel fuel and steel they can lay their hands on. |
| JoeRoss | tony: I read that, too but where?? |
| tony44 | Let me see if i can pull the email, i got a newsletter a day or so ago. |
| JoeRoss | Chinese also stockpiling gold. |
| tony44 | So what do they know is the question? |
| tony44 | And are they right? |
| Dean | agweb.com is a pretty decent source for ags. |
| JoeRoss | The Chinese know they have to keep expanding or die. |
| JoeRoss | They are building the equivalent of a major city almost every week. |
| tony44 | Thanks dean for the link. |
| Dean | Yes! |
| JoeRoss | The Chinese literally have a tiger by the tail. |
| JoeRoss | It's a bubble that keep expanding. When it bursts there will be hell to pay. |
| Sherri | By them, us, or everyone? |
| JoeRoss | Our Chinese contacts are giving us a lot of truth about what's going on over there. |
| acman | I just started charting the Rinminbi. It seems to be on an upward slant. |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: by everyone. A lot of countries will hurt when the China bubble bursts. |
| JoeRoss | acman: It is a slow climb, yes! |
| acman | Looking for a trading opportunity. |
| tony44 | I believe it was the USDA export report that i got that soybean info from. |
| JoeRoss | Our Chinese lady pronounced "renminbi" for me. It sure didn't sound like the way we spell it. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi tj |
| tj1 | Hi. |
| tony44 |
China soybean imports are up 33% since October.....China all veg oil imports are up 43% since September....China soy oil imports are up 117% since September. |
| zendre | Why do not they import LC and LH? |
| Sherri | Is that going into the stockpiling just mentioned? |
| tony44 | Yes. |
| Dean | They buy beef and pork....just not on the hoof. |
| JoeRoss |
zendre: Only 25% of Chinese can afford to eat meat on a regular basis. They have plenty of their own pigs, dogs, cats to take care of their meat needs. |
| zendre | dogs, cats.... :) |
| Sherri | Joe, what do your Chinese contacts say that we don't usually hear over here. (homonyms) |
| JoeRoss | Puppy dogs are commonly eaten in some parts of China, as are cats. |
| zendre | Anyway the rise of the food will make the job for the meats. |
| zendre | There are no cats on the streets in Italy either :) |
| JoeRoss |
Sherri: They say that most of the Chinese stocks being marketed in the U.S. are govt. owned companies that are doing nothing more than losing money and are subsidized to make them look good. |
| marsh |
And rats. The Chinese eat rats. Don't believe me? There was a Wall Street Journal article about it, where the guy who wrote it actually went to a rat restaurant and ate rat. |
| Sherri | I see. |
| Dean | Need plenty of cumin with that rat omelet. |
| JoeRoss |
Hey! Don't knock it too much. I accidentally ate rat in Haiti. I didn't know what it was until after I was finished. It actually tasted good the way they prepared it. I don't want to try it again, though. |
| tony44 | Yuck. |
| tony44 | lol |
| acman | I just went on a cruise a few weeks ago and the 30 chinese were not eating rat but enjoyed the dinner cuisine. |
| acman | Some are out spending money around the world. |
| zendre | And the French are tricky they tend not to hurry, just eat the slow food that is left (snails). That is why "fast food " restaurants are not popular there. |
| marsh | And grasshoppers. Deep fried. A guy from China once told me he ate them and liked them. "Crunchy", he said. |
| JoeRoss | Maybe we will have grasshopper futures one of these days. |
| tony44 | I'd be rich lol. |
| JoeRoss | tony: You can sell them as organically raised at Whole Foods markets. |
| zendre | What about the PL and HG? Is today's long bar an exhausting bar? Or the trend never ends? |
| Sherri | Yeah, I've wondered why there aren't all kinds more futures markets. Foods at least don't seem to be represented. |
| tony44 | I've wondered why there isn't a hay market. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: Maybe temporary exhaustion for profit taking. |
| tony44 | 3 wheat markets but no hay. |
| marsh | There was an onion futures market, but it was so corrupt, they outlawed it forever. |
| JoeRoss | Both PL and HG finished strong. |
| JoeRoss | tony: People tend to not eat hay. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Same with Maine Potatoes, too crooked to keep it open. |
| tony44 | But the animals we eat, eat hay. |
| JoeRoss | tony: Not much protein in hay, mostly belly filler. Hay is what you feed during the winter to keep them from starving. |
| tony44 | Ya that's true, its more on protein content isn't it? |
| JoeRoss | Animals lose weight on hay, even Lespedeza. |
| tony44 | ? |
| JoeRoss | Lespedeza is a high protein grass that is used for hay. |
| JoeRoss | I had it on my farm in Missouri. |
| Dean | Anyone watching the lunar eclipse tonight? |
| tony44 | Never heard of it....i don't get out much. |
| JoeRoss | Lezpedeza and clover both make good hay along with alfalfa. |
| tony44 | lol |
| JoeRoss | We have clouds, can't see the moon. |
| Dean | Nice clear view here. |
| Sherri | Only about 1/4 left to go on the eclipse. |
| JoeRoss | LOL |
| zendre | What about going long Cocoa TTE? |
| tony44 |
So Joe, if Chinese are buying soybeans and gold, what is your estimate on how high those markets could go. I know you trade the charts, but i just wondered. |
| acman | Can't see it here. Overcsat. Went out before the chat. Last eclipse until 2010. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: It's not my kind of trade. Looks like part of a blow off top. |
| Sherri | If the grains keep going up, that should bode well for Minnesota, and for you guys in North Dakota, shouldn't it? |
| JoeRoss | tony: The sky's the limit as far as I'm concerned, especially in terms of dollars. |
| Dean | Prices are good Sherri, but the input costs are killing us. |
| JoeRoss | That farm equipment runs on diesel and you need oil and lubricants. |
| Dean | 2 years ago I paid $325/ton for fertilizer.....right now it is @ $730/ton. |
| Dean | Fuel has more than tripled. |
| Dean | Insurance has doubled. |
| Sherri | Oh - rats! Is anybody gonna come out ahead on this stuff? |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: Only the rats! :D |
| Dean | Machinery is up 40%. |
| marsh | And those who eat them! |
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| Dean | Young farmers just cannot make it starting out. |
| zendre | How about the price of the replace parts for machinery? Is not it going up there as well? |
| JoeRoss | Hi kiwi. |
| Dean | Yes Zendre that too. |
| kiwidave | Hi Joe. |
| Sherri | Oh my, I'm sorry Dean. Sounds like a real rat race - and discouraging. |
| acman | Wait until you get a refill on freon. R22 is now 4x from 3 years ago! |
| JoeRoss | Sherri:: In a rat race it is a rat who always wins. |
| Dean | World runs on greed. |
| zendre | I never thought that you do have so high inflation in the USA. |
| kiwidave | Not now and I'll be in to see you, Joe. |
| acman |
It seems that the markets are doing blow offs one at a time. The wheat did it, now oats seems to be going. Might be a fabulous way to jump on the bandwagon. |
| Dean | I'm going to start raising rats. |
| JoeRoss |
The sad thing is that the price of crude is killing everyone and yet there is no true shortage of oil. There are billions of barrels of the stuff sitting in the U.S., Canada, Venezuela. At $90/bbl it is all economically profitable to extract. |
| JoeRoss | I noticed that margin for oats is now higher than for corn. |
| Dean | The current largest oil play in the US is going on in my backyard. |
| tony44 | But there will inevitably be a shortage of oil someday, i think that is the fear. |
| Dean | But they cannot find workers for the oil rigs. |
| JoeRoss | tony: If they would begin converting coal into oil there is enough in the U.S. alone for the next 500 years. |
| zendre | What is the cost of this coal-oil transforming? |
| JoeRoss | The whole oil mess is a put up job, and it is deceiving almost everyone. |
| tony44 | I always hear that, but why don't they do it? Is it because of the environmentalists. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: I don't know but I think it is well under $70/bbl. |
| JoeRoss | The South Africans did it when they were being boycotted by the rest of the world. |
| JoeRoss | It ran about $30/bbl. |
| zendre | It was some 40 year ago was not it? |
| zendre | And the germans during WWII. |
| JoeRoss | But now there is a technology that enables them to make very clean oil from coal without screwing up the environment. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: That is correct. |
| kiwidave |
They have appointed a minister for keeping oil at the cheapest possible price for the consumer here in OZ the other day. The petrol companies are ripping us off. However, I walk as much as I can, a tank of gas lasts me 14 to 16 days. |
| tony44 | So what is the reason that we don't do it? |
| acman | I was surprised that the cost of gas in Baja California is the same as here in Texas. |
| kiwidave | They export most of the coal here in OZ to China. |
| JoeRoss | tony: Politics and control power. |
| tony44 | Cool, i guess we'll just keep burning our food then, sounds like a good plan. |
| zendre | However back to Chinese, why do not they do it? CL is quite expensive for them too, and they too have vast coal reserves (as far as I know). |
| tony44 | On the positive side, i've got a great view of the moon. Read Acts 2:20 if you want to get freaked out a little bit. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: The Chinese have a massive coal conversion program underway right now. |
| marsh | I looked at the S/BO spread. It's trending nicely. |
| zendre | Any opinion on currencies? |
| kiwidave | Joe: What's the time there at the moment I'm a bit stuffed up with the country changes. |
| acman | Thanks Marsh. |
| JoeRoss | 8:51 PM |
| kiwidave | Cheers. |
| JoeRoss | Is it your Friday morning, dave? |
| JoeRoss | I mean Thursday maybe. |
| marsh | Joe, I was thinking of trading the mini Crude future. It's not very liquid. If I kept it to limit orders, would it turn out ok? |
| kiwidave | No it is 12:53 pm Thursday. |
| JoeRoss | marsh I think you would be okay with limit orders. |
| acman | Joe: is there a way to convert $ to rinminbi. Still can't spell that. |
| marsh | The crude chart looks very good for trading. I've been ignoring it. |
| JoeRoss | acman: If there is a way, it will be via forex and the spread will probably kill you. |
| kiwidave | Joe have to nail these Options & Futions....Have been working hard....but will need some full on help. |
| zendre | What about going long AUD short CAD? |
| JoeRoss | marsh; Why not the full size E-Oil contract. Lost of volume there. Over 250,000. |
| acman | Guess the CME contract is the only way. Just don't get many contracts. They effectively are doing a forex and making a future. They only have it vs ec, $, jy. |
| JoeRoss | That's why you're coming Dave. :D |
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| JoeRoss | zendre: that looks good too. AD is on a roll. |
| tony44 | Corn up 4 and soybeans up 16 overnight. |
| marsh | I heard that they won't fill an order less than a 5 lot on the full contract. Is that true? |
| JoeRoss | Wow! |
| acman | Great info to subscribe is commodity news for tomorrow put out by CME. |
| marsh | If so, it would take about $40,000 to get in. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I don't think it's a problem on an electronic platform. Why not jump in with a 1 lot and jump right out. It can't hurt. |
| JoeRoss | The other day I jumped into the euro and back out and picked up $49 :) by accident. I sold when I wanted to buy. When i undid it, I was up $49 :) |
| acman | Is it like the bid/ask spread on the MGE March wheat? |
| marsh | Yeah, good idea. Thanks, Joe. |
| acman | This week I saw 20 cents! |
| JoeRoss | It's that time again. |
| JoeRoss | See y'all next week. |
| marsh | Thanks Joe. Goodnight. |
| JoeRoss | Don't freeze too much up north you guys. We need you in the chat. |
| zendre | Thanks, bye |
| kiwidave | haha shorts and tee shirt here. |
| netwonc | See ya folks.... night |
| Sherri | Thanks Joe! See you soon. Sleep well! |
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| kiwidave | Ok Joe, I have a million questions for you see you soon. |
| acman | I am freezing here in Austin TX. It is down to 55degrees tonight. Brrrrh |
| JoeRoss | larry, the chat just ended, you are an hour late. |
| tony44 | Thanks, Joe. |
| JoeRoss | larry where are you from? |
| Larry | Catch you next week. |
| JoeRoss | Ok see you then 8PM Central time. |
| Larry | nanaimo British Columbia. |
| tony44 | Moon's about totally covered now. |
| marsh | I've been there. I like the nanaimo bars. |
| Larry | It's a paradise. |
| acman | Enjoy the eclipse. Can't see it from here. |
| marsh | Yes, and I can get fat on the pastries they make there and in Victoria. |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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