Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| JoeRoss | Good evening or whatever time it is where you live. |
| JoeRoss | The currencies went wild today. |
| JoeRoss | Bonds also |
| renato | Sir, what is the better space of time to see the graphics? |
| renato | 15 min? 60? |
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| JoeRoss | renato: There is no "better" time frame. The best one is the one where you feel comfortable trading. |
| JoeRoss | Hi acman |
| JoeRoss | Wild markets today, eh? |
| acman | Hi Joe. Love that MWH |
| acman | Bid/ask was over $1 today. Didn't trade but just watched. |
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| JoeRoss | That Minneapolis wheat is going to the moon, maybe beyond. |
| SusanV |
Good Evening Joe, in one of your articles I read that we should always study, explore and read about changes that could affect our trading. Are there any changes taking place at this point in time that we should make note of? |
| JoeRoss | Yesterday I think the spread was $1.20 |
| JoeRoss | SusanV: Yes. On March 3 the bonds will have a reduced tick size from 31.25 down to 15.625 and the 5 year notes will reduce to 7.8125 |
| renato | What is this? bid/ask? there is no such thing in Brazil? |
| JoeRoss | It will be interesting to see if the liquidity remains in the bonds now that they are the same size as the 10 year notes. |
| acman |
I had a spread on and managed to save the account. The Minneapolis exchange had a spread trading at 400 while the outrights had a spread of 650! I had to get out and the broker at Tradestation helped out by letting me know that. THere must have been limits on the spread. |
| JoeRoss |
renato: There is always a bid/ask, even in Brazil. There must be a spread between the bid price and the ask price (The bid-ask spread). Ask is the price that the underlying is being offered at by the seller. Bid is the price the buyer wants to buy at. If there were no bid/ask there would be no market. |
| SusanV | Thanks Joe. Your answer was referred to the Bond Market in particular. |
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| acman | The spread was back to 170 today. |
| SusanV | Joe, what sources do you recommend to read to be on top of major changes in the markets that could affect my trading dramatically? |
| JoeRoss | Today I was trading Swissie, and at one point the bid/ask spread was around 18 points. |
| acman | Wow. That isn't quite as bad as the wheat but terrible. Usually the SF is around 2 and maybe 5 at night! |
| renato | Could you give an example? |
| JoeRoss |
SusanV: You always need to be aware of which economic reports are coming out that might affect the market you are trading in. We have 2 sources on our website. And there is another one called "Briefing.com" where you can see which financial reports are due out for every day. On our website we have a link to the ANTC calendar which lists reports from all over the world, as well as first notice day, last trading day, and option expiration day. |
| JoeRoss | We also have a table that lists how the various reports affect the markets. |
| JoeRoss | renato: Sure. In the U.S. Petro Bras is right now bid 125.01/ask 125.03 |
| acman | Here is one I found this week regarding CPI http://www.shadowstats.com/section/commentaries |
| renato | Ok. |
| JoeRoss | renato: There has to be a spread between the two. There is no other way for prices to move. |
| JoeRoss | Thanks acman. |
| renato | Buyer and seller |
| SusanV | Thanks Joe, I appreciate your detailed reply to my question. |
| JoeRoss | renato: Right. buyer and seller. |
| SusanV | That helps a lot |
| JoeRoss | renato: You should sign up for our beginners course. |
| JoeRoss | renato: Are you trading futures or just stocks? |
| JoeRoss | renato: If you are a Chart Scan subscriber, you can find a coupon for $20 off in last week's Chart Scan for taking the beginners course. |
| renato | Sorry but as you see the terms here are different for what we call spread. |
| SusanV | Joe, do you have a favorite lesson in your Futures Beginners Course? |
| renato | I live from the market for 20 years. |
| JoeRoss | SusanV: I really like the one where I show the correct understanding and use of some of the more popular indicators. |
| JoeRoss | renato: So you are not a beginner. Great! Welcome to our chat. |
| acman |
Your welcome Joe. Here is another one I mentioned last week. Got another one from the CME and Dow Jones News. The mines have dropped their hedges during 2007 by 137million ounces. They reduced their hedging by 48%. Gold may move up a lot more. http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,846,00.html. |
| JoeRoss | acman: I am totally convinced that gold will move up a lot more. I would not be surprised to see $3,000/ounce. |
| renato | And oil? |
| JoeRoss | renato: My feeling is that as the dollar collapses the price of oil will go up. Maybe until OPEC moves to a basket of currencies. |
| acman | Wow! I am selling my silver quarters on ebay. Got $19 last night. Found actually selling is harder than buying so selling into the rise. |
| JoeRoss | acman: $19 each?? |
| acman | $19 per ounce. 13.5x face. |
| acman | $10 roll for $135! |
| JoeRoss | acman: Nice. |
| JoeRoss | Maybe you should hold on to a few of them, you might be able to buy 1 gross of donuts with 1 silver quarter, one of these days. :-) |
| acman | Just that and could have paid for dinner $13 with 4 quarters! |
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| JoeRoss | Too bad you can't just walk into the market with a quarter and walk out with $3+ of goods. :-) |
| JoeRoss | Hi Tom123 |
| JoeRoss | Hi Marsh, I didn't see you come in. |
| acman |
Yeah. I sold about 1/2 my quarters locally a few weeks ago and found out the bid/ask spread on coins. Pretty bad. Doing better on ebay after the costs. |
| Tom123 | Hi Joe. |
| JoeRoss | acman: The only decent market for coins is if you have ones that are graded and certified. |
| marsh | Hi Joe. |
| renato | What do you expect to Dow Jones? |
| JoeRoss | renato: If the financial stocks rally, the stock market along with the Dow will rally. |
| renato | Sorry... what do you expect to Dow Jones for the end of this month? |
| acman |
The problem with the certification is they have little relationship to the metal price and are more of collectibles like art or stamps. Not a lot of charting to go by. |
| JoeRoss | renato: I have no particular expectation for the end of this month. |
| Tom123 | Joe, do you think it's possible to have 80% win rate of spread trading? |
| JoeRoss | acman: True, the certified ones are collectibles. I assume you are selling junk coins. |
| acman | Totally junk. |
| renato | Ok... |
| JoeRoss | Tom123: Interesting question. In Andy's latest survey he found that 87% of our spread subscribers are either winning or breaking even. I got that info just this morning. |
| Tom123 | What's the major factors or methods to make a high win rate of spread trading? |
| JoeRoss | renato. I will be in Brazil March 23-24. Will you be coming to the seminar? |
| JoeRoss | Tom123: I would have to say the major factor is that spreads reflect something real happening in the markets. So it makes trade selection a lot easier and a lot more certain. |
| renato | I leave in Curitiba... You will come here? |
| JoeRoss | I think the seminar is in Sao Paolo. I don't know where Curitiba is. |
| renato | Ok. I'll try to go there. |
| JoeRoss | You can sign up for the seminar at www.tradingeducators.br |
| marsh | Joe, if you go to Rio to have a seminar, make sure the room faces the ocean. If it faces the hills, there may be bullets flying. |
| renato | I saw your interview to Agora at the internet and i like it a lot. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: No Rio this trip. But I know what you mean ;-) |
| JoeRoss | renato: That interview was in Rio at Agora's main office. |
| marsh | Although I've been twice, and no problems whatsoever. |
| acman |
Tom: you have seasonality, limited risk if in similar commodities. I just was in the Minneapolis wheat spread and the spread limited my loss by $12,500 per contract when they took the stops off of the March contract. I only had a few contracts. I am on the 12 step program for wheat! Anyway, if you were trading the outright only and had been on the wrong side you would have been hit by $25,000 per contract that day! |
| JoeRoss | Rio sure is a beautiful place looking at it from the airplane. |
| marsh | The most beautiful city in the world. |
| Tom123 | Joe, in today's market almost all commodities are expensive and volatile. Do you think we can still keep losses small? |
| Tom123 | Thx, acman. |
| TradeCraze | JR, I just wanted to comment that the TLOC online seminar really has helped me pull it all together in my daytrading. Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | Tom123: Small is a relative term. If you get into highly volatile markets and in time frames where there is a lot of noise, it is hard to keep losses small. |
| renato | The stock market in Brazil is like Rio... bang ...bang... without police.... |
| JoeRoss | TradeCraze: I'm truly glad to hear that. |
| acman | Tom, I think the only thing to watch is not get into thin markets where the commodity funds are able to run the markets. |
| JoeRoss | ...or figure out how to run with them!! |
| TradeCraze | Can you tell me what significance the zero line in the CCI has? |
| JoeRoss |
TradeCraze: It is the most neutral point you can have in the CCI. Between -100 and +100 there is really not much significance. The Significance in CCI is when you exceed 100 in either direction. |
| Tom123 | Joe, Do you think the grain market still have long long bull to run? |
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| TradeCraze | When you exceed the 100 in either direction ... then what? I am not following you. |
| JoeRoss |
Tom123: Yes I do. I think as long as the U.S. messes around with this ethanol craze, we will see rising grain markets. My hope is that there are enough people who are hurting who can put pressure on the govt. to stop this silly thing. |
| JoeRoss | Ethanol is a farce. It is a giant hoax, and it will not be viable until 2012. |
| marsh | But it's making a ton of money for Archer-Daniels Midland, and they pay whoever is President of the US lots of money in campaign contributions, so ... |
| JoeRoss | But madman Bush is asking to triple the ethanol output. It would fall flat if it were not subsidized. |
| JoeRoss | Tradecraze. The larger the number over +100 or under -100, the stronger the move. |
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| acman |
Ethanol is the best thing the oil companies could hope for. All of the reports state it takes more fertilizer than the other grains and has the lowest energy out for energy in. |
| JoeRoss | It seems everyone knows that Ethanol is a bad joke, but those against are not as organized as those who are in favor of it. |
| TradeCraze | Ok that makes sense .... thank you. |
| acman |
The commodity news for today a few months ago mentioned that South Africa nixed Monsanto and didn't want to plant acreage for ethanol. Apparently Monsanto is in the business of selling seeds for the ethanol type corn. |
| JoeRoss |
TradeCraze: The force of a move to go from 100 to 200 is geometrically stronger than from 0 to 100; from 200 to 300 requires even greater force, and is geometrically greater than from 100 to 200, and so on as you move 100 on the CCI scale. Each 100 marker requires a greater factor to reach it. |
| JoeRoss | I read where they have a lot of trouble putting out ethanol fires. |
| JoeRoss | It requires a more expensive type of foam to smother it. |
| Tom123 | Joe, do you think oil will stand up $100, for a very long time? |
| JoeRoss | Tom123: Yes, I think it will. |
| JoeRoss | OPEC is making noises about cutting production. But let's face it, the whole situation is one gigantic manipulation to keep oil prices high and to keep fear in the people. |
| JoeRoss | We have more oil right here in the U.S. than the Saudis ever hoped to have. |
| acman | Joe: What months of cattle will be affected by these high grain prices. When do they start dumping the herds. Thinking of a spread. |
| JoeRoss | acman: I'm thinking August. |
| marsh | I wonder if a lot of today's cars will run well on ethanol. I think in the manual of my car it said to not use ethanol. |
| acman | So June up and August cattle down? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Most cars won't run on ethanol. That's why when you buy it there is only 10% alcohol in the mix. |
| JoeRoss | acman: I wrote the whole thing up for this Friday's Chart Scan. Be sure to read it. |
| marsh | Yeah, but it might still not be best for the car. Some of the rubber or plastic seals might wear faster. |
| marsh | That is, they dissolve in the ethanol. |
| acman | I will. I am in the spread now and it has moved nowhere for over a week and I am contemplating dumping it but maybe I should hang on. |
| JoeRoss | It's my bed time. Maybe I'll drink some ethanol and sleep better :-) |
| BigBlueSky | Good night everybody |
| acman | Thanks Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Good night all |
| TradeCraze | I thought the email said two hours ... it's only one? |
| JoeRoss | Only one hour. |
| renato | Thanks Joe.... Brazz |
| JoeRoss | I need my rest. |
| acman | tradecraze, there is a euro chat in the afternoon. |
| marsh | Bye Joe, Thanks. |
| TradeCraze | Ok ... oh that makes sense. |
| TradeCraze | Bye |
| spreadtrader | Sleep tight, Joe |
| renato | Brazilian ethanol is the best... you can make a "caipirinha" |
| JoeRoss | The two hours are 1 hour at 1PM and 1 hour at 8PM |
| Tom123 | BYE JOE, Thanks a lot. |
| JoeRoss | renato: I agree. |
| JoeRoss | I'll be real tight if I drink enough ethanol. :-D |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
