Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
| vicrose joined. | |
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| kiwidave | Giday all |
| renato joined. | |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| netwonc joined. | |
| kiwidave | hi Joe |
| JoeRoss | Hi everyone |
| netwonc | hi all, |
| JoeRoss | I see some new names here tonight. |
| JoeRoss | The chat will be only as good as your participation. |
| JoeRoss | Feel free to ask questions, even ones you may think are too simple; and feel free to make comments. |
| JoeRoss | This chat is for you, not me. I already know how to trade. |
| netwonc | What do you think gold will do now...seems to be retracing somewhat. |
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| Sherri | Hi Joe! Hi Everyone! Hope everyone's o.k. after 2 explosive days! |
| JoeRoss | Kiwi: Take a look at an option strangle for the May bond contract. It looks real good selling the 127 or 126 Calls and the 114 Puts. Good distance, and a chance to take profits out more than once before expiration. |
| JoeRoss | netwonc. Gold is setting up for stage 3 of its climb. Now is the time to get in, but do it gradually. Next time it will hit 2300. |
| JoeRoss | Scale into gold if it keeps going down. Otherwise hock you grandmothers underpants and BUY! |
| Sherri | Joe and Netwonc - you were speaking of gold. Would you recap, please? |
| kiwidave | Joe, yes have been following TY seems to be working. How can something so simple work, well how's to know, just is and just does "A" |
| JoeRoss | Hi Sherri: Yes! Very explosive days. Volatility has gone wild. |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: Gold is setting up for stage 3 of its climb. Next stop is 2300. Scale in as it falls. Don't try to find the bottom. Just dollar average into it and then hang on for the usual wild ride. |
| netwonc | thanks Joe, I was wondering if now is a good time for entry... for another upward move. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: Use the 30 year bond. Premiums are almost double those of the TY. |
| kiwidave | Joe, yes ok |
| Sherri | I see. Thanks. |
| kiwidave | Joe: Sorry I meant TQ |
| JoeRoss | The strangle I mentioned has only about $400 margin. |
| vicrose | We are selling a call and a put for the bonds, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: is TQ the 30 year bond? The one in the U.S. goes by ZB. |
| JoeRoss | vicrose: That is correct. 126 or 127 Call and 114 Put. |
| JoeRoss | Sell as many as you feel comfortable with. |
| vicrose | thanks... |
| JoeRoss | The month is May for the bond option strangle. |
| JoeRoss | As soon as you see some profits, take them. Then reenter, and take profits again, reenter, take them again, etc. |
| renato | Brazilian market has been following NYSE every day.... but yesterday it didn't. what do you think about this detachment? How are you looking at Brazilian markets? and PBR? |
| vicrose | oh, ok, i've got it. |
| JoeRoss | renato: The detachment is because of the carry trade. The currencies like real, icelandic krona, rand, are getting hit hard. It is only temporary. |
| JoeRoss | The carry trade is shifting over to the U.S. dollar. So real is being sold to enter into currencies paying higher interest. Dollar is also being sold. It is cheap to borrow dollars to buy currencies with higher interest. |
| Sherri | Joe, I know you left your crystal ball back in the new lettuce patch, But, is this mess probably going stay together 'til the election? |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: I think the FED has put enough glue into it to hold it together for awhile. The FED actions are going to probably bring about a rally. |
| JoeRoss | It takes a bit of time for what they did to work through. Watch the big banks and financial companies. If they start to rally the whole stock market will rally. But that won't save the dollar. |
| renato | This rally is up or down???? |
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| Sherri | Hi Marsh. |
| marsh | Hi Sherri |
| JoeRoss | renato: The rally may end the fall of stocks. So it is up. |
| JoeRoss | Hi marsh. |
| marsh | Hi Joe |
| vicrose | What currency should we buy instead of the dollar? |
| JoeRoss | By the way, while I remember, no chat next week. I will be in Brazil. |
| JoeRoss | The strongest so far this year has been the Swiss franc. |
| vicrose | Thanks |
| renato | ok... |
| JoeRoss | Norwegian krone is also good. |
| JoeRoss | Next chat will be April 2. |
| vicrose | What is a good brokerage that does options on futures? |
| renato | nice time to come to brazil.....we are living a tsunami in our market... |
| JoeRoss |
For those of you who trade spot forex, we have a new method that trades EUR/CHF, EUR/SKE, AUD/NZD. All have been hot currencies and all but euro franc and A$ are difficult to trade in futures. If you are interested, here's the link: Forex Stealth™ Trading Method |
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| JoeRoss | vicrose: I use Interactive Brokers for that. Maybe some others can tell you who they are using. |
| JoeRoss | renato: Brazil is hot, hot, hot and I'm not talking about the weather. The economy is on fire. |
| renato | i know..i'm not talking about the weather too. Have you seen how much PBR fell today? and RIO? |
| vicrose | Would you recommend buying options on gold instead of the futures? |
| JoeRoss | renato: I saw how the fell, but it is only temporary. These are great buying opportunities. |
| JoeRoss | vicrose: I am not an option buyer. The odds against are too great. |
| vicrose | ok, thanks |
| JoeRoss | vicrose: You will pay a terrible price to buy gold options. |
| marsh | That means gold options have a lot of premium? So selling them may be good? |
| vicrose | yes, got burned a few years ago...wanted your opinion though...no options..thanks |
| renato | ok... thanks... but i only buy when it is going up, because i don't know how much more it will fall... don't you think? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Selling them brings a lot of premium, but I would wait until gold starts rising again and then sell Puts. |
| marsh | Cool, thanks. |
| JoeRoss | renato: You can wait until prices begin rising again, or you can scale in and dollar average your entry price. |
| marsh | Looking at the monthly and weekly charts for gold, there are big spike reversals for each. That seems to mean there will be some down or sideways action first. |
| JoeRoss | Ricard and Larry, don't be shy. Ask questions, make comments. |
| renato | you are suggesting a middle price on buy? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Gold is a wild market, it has always offered a rough ride once it begins trending. |
| JoeRoss | renato: Getting a middle price is what I mean by dollar averaging. |
| Ricard | Hi there guys, sorry for being so quiet - a few distractions over here |
| Ricard | there was a nice pin bar on the gold daily chart signaling the top. |
| JoeRoss |
Here's another bond option method that has been working well. Sell strangles on the bonds from a weekly chart, using the fast stochastic. Just set it so that it matches up with the swings in the weekly bond chart and sell Calls when it turns down and Puts when it turns up. Current setting is 14, 3,3 |
| Sherri | Ricard, what is a pin bar? |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: I think we call it a spike reversal. In Italy some call it a nail. |
| Sherri | O.K. |
| Ricard | It's similar to a shooting star or gravestone doji - candlestick patterns |
| Sherri | Ah, thanks, so poetic. |
| Ricard | Pin bar stands for Pinochio bar - it has long nose telling you a lie that the market is going higher |
| marsh | I put up the weekly bond with the 14,3,3 stoc. When bonds swing, they really swing! |
| Ricard | the idea is to go short on the break of the low of the pin bar |
| JoeRoss | Ricard: We trade "reversal bars" the same way. |
| Ricard | I'm a spot fx trader and boy do the currencies swing. |
| vicrose | What is the quickest way to learn your method, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | vicrose: Which method is that? |
| vicrose | the hook and price patterns. |
| Ricard | Joe, I've discovered your websites recently and found your Rh & TTE very enlightening. I'm busy testing that. |
| vicrose | yes, me too ... the TTE and RH is very helpful. |
| Larry | I'm new here, just wanted to learn more about your method of trading |
| JoeRoss | Have fun testing, Ricard. Some of the greatest minds on this planet have done it and proven that it is a fantastic way to trade. |
| Ricard | and how the insiders engineer the moves to hunt stops. |
| renato | which website? |
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| Ricard | I agree, I think its similar to Bill Williams fractal breakouts. |
| JoeRoss | vicrose: We have a free Law of Charts and TTE download on our website. Go to Resources. Beyond that you should consider taking the Law of Charts Online Seminar. |
| vicrose | thanks, Joe..that will be next then...I have downloaded the others...thank you... very sharing...most helpful |
| Ricard | So, from what I understand is that the trend is only really established once the Rh breaks - otherwise it could be a false break. |
| JoeRoss | But vicrose and Ricard, please do not think TLOC is a method. it is not. It is a law, and you have to come up with methods to implement the law. The TTE (Traders Trick Entry) is only one implementation of TLOC. |
| JoeRoss | There are many others. |
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| koolerking | thankyou |
| JoeRoss | Ricard: Bill Williams came up with his fractal breakouts only after he read my books. |
| Ricard | Ah, great to hear. So, I'm in the right place. |
| vicrose | ok, I see what you are saying now... |
| marsh | Whoo Hoo! Look at the emini russell 3 min today for some killer 1-2-3's and Ross Hooks! |
| JoeRoss | Larry: I don't have a "method" of trading. The only thing standard in what I do is the approach to the markets. That never changes. |
| JoeRoss | Ricard: True the trend is established only with violation of the Rh. |
| marsh | Especially the last hours. |
| JoeRoss | ER2 was great today for day trading. Amen |
| Ricard |
then once a trend is established one can trail your stop to the low of the most recent closed bar and once stopped out you buy the break of the previous bar's bar high again since it was only trying to trick you out of the trade. |
| JoeRoss | Hi to all who joined us after I first said hi to everyone |
| Ricard | ...and out of the trend. |
| JoeRoss | Ricard: That's the way I trade it. |
| marsh | And some great inside bar trades on the 3 min. For instance, 2 inside bars at 13:15 |
| Ricard | it keeps the losses small and you're always in on the momentum breaks. |
| Sherri | Joe, don't you usually set your stop two bars back? |
| JoeRoss | One thing to keep in mind. With today's swinging rather than trending markets, the third Rh is the last Rh more often than not. |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: No, i keep very tight stops. |
| Ricard | markets moves in 3's |
| JoeRoss | I trail right behind the most recent bar. |
| Sherri | Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | That can change, Sherri. Don't go making a rule about it. |
| Ricard | Joe, do you use any fibonacci studies? |
| marsh | Hey Joe, when is the next book due out? The rewrite of Trading by the Book. |
| JoeRoss | It depends on the time frame. |
| Sherri | O.K. |
| renato | what time do you like? |
| JoeRoss | Ricard: I used to look at Fib, but not anymore. I have in mind where the Fib traders will enter the market, and I can take advantage of their moves, but I don't trade it directly. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I have no idea. I keep getting interrupted. I wish it was out yesterday, but so many other things come up, I never seem to be able to do more than one page/month. |
| JoeRoss | renato: If you are asking me which time frame I like, the answer is the one where I can get enough momentum from moves to make money. I am basically a momentum trader. |
| Ricard | I use fibonacci extensions to give me exit targets - there is a relationship between the pull and the extension (energy), but then again you know these things. |
| Larry | I'd like to start off with one of your books where should I start? |
| JoeRoss | Larry: What do you like to trade? |
| Ricard | the shallower the pullback the higher the extension & the deeper the pullback the lower the extension or only to the Rh. |
| JoeRoss | Where do you feel most comfortable at this point. |
| Larry | Forex |
| JoeRoss | Larry: Do you day trade or position trade? |
| kiwidave |
Joe: I still having problems with the mechanics of everything in options and putting all info together. Will see if I can work it out on Man Global system before IB's. Have got an updated spreadsheets from Alan Parry now have to read up on the changes he made. Everything seems to be working ok. Will hunt the Stone for you and get a goody. |
| netwonc | thanks for a great chat tonight, have a safe trip Joe, and will see you at next chat ....until later......good night |
| Larry | I daytrade. |
| JoeRoss | Thank kiwi |
| JoeRoss | Larry: Get the book called of all things: "Day Trading". You can also find it on our book webpage: www.tradingeducators.com/books.htm |
| Sherri | Happy Easter to all. Travel safely, Joe and we'll see you in 2 weeks. G'nite! |
| Larry | thanks |
| JoeRoss | I guess it's that time again. |
| JoeRoss | I'll be back on April 2. No chat next week. |
| renato | thanks Joe |
| JoeRoss | Have a great Easter holiday. |
| kiwidave | ok see ya later safe trip for all |
| vicrose | Thanks Joe...most helpful...have fun in Brazil!!! |
| JoeRoss | Good night all. |
| Ricard | Thanks Joe & happy Easter |
| renato | you didn 't answer me? |
| JoeRoss | Make 1 million trading, but don't start with 2 million. |
| marsh | Thanks Joe, Goodnight, and a good trip. |
| JoeRoss | What was the question Renato? |
| renato | What time do you use? |
| JoeRoss |
I answered that question. I use whichever time frame gives me the momentum I need to be profitable in the way I am trading. For some markets I can get it on a 15 minute chart and some markets 30 minutes, or 60 minutes or even daily. |
| renato | ok |
| JoeRoss | See you in 2 weeks. |
| JoeRoss | Good day, evening, night whatever it is where you are. |
| renato | I understand |
| renato | thanks |
| renato | take care |
| JoeRoss | You are welcome: |
| JoeRoss | I will |
| JoeRoss | bye |
| renato | bye |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
