Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| marsh | Hi Joe. |
| Linda | Hi Joe, |
| Linda | Is it okay to be just a listener my first time on? |
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| zendre | hi all |
| JoeRoss | Hi All |
| MartinS | Hi |
| MartinS | Nice to be here :-) |
| tony44 | hi |
| JoeRoss | Linda, you can listen, but it's better if you can read because there is no sound. |
| tony44 | lol |
| Linda | I am reading. |
| JoeRoss | New high today in Crude Oil. |
| JoeRoss | Currencies are up again. |
| tony44 | Yep and corn making new high's |
| JoeRoss | Corn at new highs, too. |
| MartinS | The sky is the limit. |
| JoeRoss | I think I'll make a new high as well. Maybe I'll move to a tree house in the jungles of New Guinea. |
| tony44 | Joe, i put on my first spread play last week. It was on the corn market, i didn't realize that there was a separate pit for spreads. |
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| yan | Joe, I'm a newbie too. I read an interview in which you mentioned about Market Detective and Aspen Graphics. Can MD be used for your methods such as Bond or Sushi? Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | tony: You did it in the pit? You are brave. There is very little volume there compared with the electronic market. There are spread brokers on the floor, but it's not a separate pit. |
| tony44 | No i did it electronic. |
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| JoeRoss | Yan: Market Detective does not handle live data. You can't use it. But Aspen graphics can. |
| tony44 | But the markets that i spread showed that i should get filled on my order but the spread wouldn't fill until it traded like a cent or 2 over my spread amount. |
| JoeRoss | tony: If you traded electronically, there was no pit involved. |
| JoeRoss | Could it be that what you did was electronic order routing to a hand held device on the floor? |
| JoeRoss | Who was your broker? |
| sb123 | Does anyone know of a program that will place an order when the bid and ask for a spread is met....in separate markets...like 10yr and us bond or AD/CD??? |
| tony44 | Well, i guess what i mean is that there is a separate market for spreads. You just don't get filled when the months you want to spread are a certain amount apart. |
| JoeRoss | Hi to everyone who came in after I said hi to everyone else :-D |
| sb123 | The NOb has good intra-day movement...so does AD/CD. |
| JoeRoss | tony: I think it's better to simply leg into the spread rather than using a spread order. |
| zendre | Joe, any answer from Aspen about charting options? |
| tony44 | Ya i was a little scared to do that in a thin market like the corn can be. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: I couldn't get anyone who knew anything. I will have to try again tomorrow morning. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Tom. |
| tom4713 | Good evening. |
| tony44 | It turned out well, i made 2k in 3 trading days. Hopefully it wasn't just beginners luck. |
| JoeRoss | Yes, hopefully ;-) |
| zendre | tony44: hopefully not, but most probably yes :-) |
| tony44 | Well i've watched this spread play out for years and never had the guts to do it. |
| marsh | tony: did you take any small losses in those 3 days? |
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| tony44 | No it was just 1 trade. |
| Wagner | Hello, Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Wagner. |
| sb123 | What was the spread tony44?? |
| marsh | I think the real skill is in taking small losses, sticking with your plan and re-entering. |
| tony44 | i was going to hold it until like October but i didn't. |
| JoeRoss | All of you who are not asking questions or making comments are invited to join in. The more the merrier, if you want a lively chat. |
| yan | Joe: If I use Genesis Trade Navigator for Bond/Sushi, do I need the live data feed or can I take only the EOD feed and get the live data from say, Infinity AT? |
| tony44 | i went long the July 09 and short the Dec 08. |
| JoeRoss | yan: you need live data. |
| MartinS | Anyone here that use Esignal? Any comments? |
| Wagner | Joe, I saw your interview.......Infomoney Brazil. |
| sb123 | TN recommendation of CZ8/CZ9 did not fare as well. |
| yan | Thanks Joe. Genesis offers your library as plug in. For what methods is the plug in required? |
| tony44 | i love esignal with ensign 99% of the time. |
| JoeRoss | Wagner: Was it the video interview? |
| MartinS | 99% ? does not work the other 1% ? |
| tony44 | right! |
| tony44 | lol |
| MartinS | ok. |
| MartinS | thanks. |
| JoeRoss | yan: The plug in has nothing to do with the methods. |
| MartinS | but that is pretty good does any feed work 100% ? |
| Wagner | Yes. www.infomoney.com.br............Joe What do you think about Benjamin Graham? |
| yan | Thanks Joe. |
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| tony44 | isn't that what i did sb123? |
| sb123 | anyone know of a program that will place orders for spreads when bid/ask prices meet spread ....like AD/CD or the NOB?? |
| tony44 | that wasn't where i got the trade but that's the month i used. |
| JoeRoss | Wagner: Benjamin Graham was one of the great ones. Many great gurus learned from him. |
| Tony | Whose tony44? |
| sb123 | you did july 09 and dec 08?? |
| tony44 | right. |
| MartinS | I had quote.com earlier but they had serious problems. |
| MartinS | so I switched. |
| Wagner | Did you get a site? |
| sb123 | ic...i 've been watching dec 09/ july 09 is at low not seen more than twice since 1995. |
| dwhitey44 | Anyone use NexTrend? It seems to be a timed update on spread trades. |
| sb123 | keeps falling...we'll see if low holds next couple days...now that usda report out. |
| Wagner | Mr. Ross: Do you work with a options? |
| sb123 | my question again.....anyone know of a program that will place orders for spreads when bid/ask prices meet spread ....like AD/CD or the NOB?? |
| JoeRoss | dwhitey: nextrend is a delayed feed for futures spreads. |
| tony44 | ya i'm not sure about that one, the spread i did just makes sense because there isn't much carry in the market right now. There is no incentive for farmers to hold into next summer. |
| JoeRoss | wagner: yes, I do a lot of options. Premiums are very high now and so I mainly do options. |
| dwhitey44 | What is a good software tool to use to watch real time futures spreads you are in? |
| marsh | sb123: you may be able to do it with a TradeStation easy language program. |
| zendre | I use Trade navigator. Expensive, but good. |
| sb123 | thx marsh...i heard your somewhat of a programmer?? |
| JoeRoss | dwhitey: Virtually any software will show you a spread. |
| marsh | somewhat. |
| yan | zendre: do you get data feed from Genesis or somewhere else? I heard live data can be fed from Transact. Not sure how to do it tho. |
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| Tony | Any followers of Charles Drummond 's Point and Line Methodology here? |
| marsh | Does anyone know of a way to get day trading margins while holding positions overnight? |
| dwhitey44 | I have heard trade station is good for stocks and options which is what I have done for many years. Just getting into futures spreads using the trader notebook as my tutor with Andy Jordan. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Joy. |
| sb123 | here's a thought...enter a spread overnight....so if long cn....sell ck overnight. |
| zendre | Genesis uses its own I think. |
| zendre | data feed. |
| Joy | Hi Joe, I cannot keep myself out of your chat rooms :-) |
| MartinS | Joe: I read an earlier chat where you wrote that an FCM is more secure than a bank...has any customer ever lost any money with a futures broker? |
| MartinS | as far as you know? |
| marsh | To get day trading margins overnight, simply exit the position at the close of the trading day, and re-enter at the open. |
| JoeRoss | Genesis gets its data from S&P Comstock. |
| JoeRoss | Welcome Joy. We are glad to have you with us again :-) |
| Wagner | Joe, have you bought PETR4 and VALE5 yet? or PETR3 and VALE3? |
| tony44 | beans up 15-21 over night, Joe do you think beans will break the highs again? |
| marsh | For instance, emini sp closes at 3:15 cst, reopens at 3:30 CST. Usually open is very near close. |
| JoeRoss | martin: No one has ever lost money when a futures broker or FCM went bust. |
| MartinS | ok thanks |
| JoeRoss | tony: I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know if they will break the highs or not. |
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| Tony | Joe....that is tony44....not me...TONY |
| JoeRoss | Wagner: No not yet. Right now I'm completely out of the stock market and using all my margin to trade ER2 futures and Bond and currency options. |
| yan |
Joe: If we use Genesis, we can only get data from them tho and not from the broker, right? I noticed Infinity offers the Genesis Trade Navigator and been told that they can provide the feed without having to subscribe with Genesis. |
| JoeRoss | Which twin has the tony? |
| Tony | Tony the lip :-) |
| marsh | Joe, if they can't lose money, why do big institutions pull out of a broker when that broker's reputation becomes tarnished? |
| Wagner | Fear. |
| MartinS | why ER2 futures? |
| Joy | Joe: Thank so much! Please forgive me for my beginner knowledge... what is ER2 futures? |
| MartinS | Russell 2000 |
| JoeRoss | yan: Brokers usually are not the ones providing data, but there are exceptions. If you can get Genesis data from infinity, you are going to pay for it one way or another. |
| sb123 | Joe, currencies are going up again overnight....what is driving this?? |
| Joy | Thank you MartinS! |
| JoeRoss | marsh: who says they pull out? |
| JoeRoss | give me an example. |
| MartinS | I prefer mini SP500 and Russell myself. |
| sb123 | SF beyond parity again like you said earlier..flight to quality. |
| sb123 | gold off 1.5 |
| JoeRoss | ER2 futures are in my opinion the best day trading market that currently exists. |
| tony44 | Joe did you buy anymore gold/silver on this pullback? |
| Joy | Joe: Why is ER2 futures the best day trading market? High liquidity? High volatility? Pray teach :-) |
| JoeRoss | My chart shows gold at the high right now 933.50 |
| MartinS | but CME has lost ER2 right? from 2010? |
| JoeRoss | tony44: No! |
| JoeRoss | Joy: For me, ER2 makes the best moves. It moves fast, and it sets up the way I like to trade. It is not nearly as messy as ES |
| marsh | Who was that futures broker that failed about 1 1/2 years ago. It was the same one that Hillary did those cattle trades with when Bill was gov of Arkansas. |
| JoeRoss | Martin: I think they will lose it August 2008, at least that's the way I remember it being. |
| Schweser | is ER2 going to the ice? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: You mean Refco? |
| MartinS | my all time favorite was the Nasdaq 100 between 1999-2002 :-) |
| tony44 | oh i thought i read a while ago that you were saying that if we pulled back you would. Maybe i'm mistaken. |
| Schweser | the intercontinental exchange? ICE |
| MartinS | incredible volatility |
| Joy | Joe: Please don't be mad at me :) What IS the set-up you like to trade? |
| JoeRoss | Schweser: Yes ER2 is moving to ICE. |
| marsh | Yeah, Refco. The head of Refco did some improper loans, and all the big customers pulled out, so Refco had to close. |
| MartinS | Ok I thought it was later :-( |
| MartinS | I was a customer at Refco. |
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| JoeRoss | Joy: I have 5 setups I like to trade and ER2 has them all. |
| renato | Hi, Mr Ross..... Good evening... |
| marsh | I trade the ER2, and I use the 4 TLOC patterns, plus spike reversal and inside bar. |
| MartinS | Man financial bought Refco. |
| Wagner | Renato, Where are you From? |
| renato | Did you enjoy your trip to Brazil? |
| JoeRoss |
marsh: They pulled out of Refco because it ceased to exist. Refco was in forex--unprotected; cash bonds--unprotected, and other markets as well, all unprotected. But not one person lost one cent in a futures account, and you never missed a single trade. Man Financial bought it eventually, but all during the time Refco was down, Refco futures kept trading. |
| JoeRoss | Hi renato |
| renato | I'm from Curitiba - Brazil. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you! I am sure I need to order your books to learn the 5 set ups quickly :-) Is the 4TLOC patterns marsh mentioned part of the 5 setups? I confess I am behind on all the terms :-( |
| MartinS | That's correct Joe but I left Refco because I was afraid :-) |
| JoeRoss | tony44: I changed my mind. I don't want to hold any metals. |
| Wagner | ok, Franca-SP-Brazil, but I was born in São Paulo-SP |
| JoeRoss | There are better opportunities for me. |
| marsh | Thanks for the explanation, Joe. |
| marsh | Joy: TLOC = The Law of Charts. Joe has a free essay on it from his website. |
| Joy | Joe: If you put all your margins in the shorter best opportunities, where do you place your long-term capital/principle (i.e., how do you allocate your principle savings?) |
| Schweser | Joe, do you think metals/commodities will pull back later on in the year due to the federal reserve, as such? |
| JoeRoss | I enjoyed Brazil, yes. But you guys made me have to work. Besides the seminars, I had to make videos for the software company and InfoMoney. |
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| Joy | Joe: are your videos available for us too? |
| Wagner | Good for you...heheheheh |
| Joy | Thank you marsh... I am embarrassed to not remember all the terms I read last night. |
| JoeRoss | Joy, my long term capital is kept in various foreign currency CDs |
| JoeRoss | Schweser: I see very little relationship between the Federal Reserve and metals. |
| JoeRoss | or commodities. |
| Linda | Joe, which foreign currency CDs do you recommend? |
| Wagner | Next time..........you need to know the beach |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you! How do you find the best CDs? Do you have a book about that too I can order? |
| Schweser | What I mean is if they stop lowering rates and the us dollar begins to rally significantly...as such... |
| JoeRoss | Commodities are more directly related to demand from India and China, and other emerging nations. |
| Schweser | but what about the inverse relationship with the us dollar? |
| JoeRoss | Linda: I like Swiss francs and euro CDs. |
| yan | Joe: Can you get forex CDs from a US broker or can this only be done with a non-US broker? |
| dwhitey44 | Joy, do not feel bad. I have read Joe's book on the law of charts plus the one on spreads and seasonals. Like a good novel, you have to read them multiple times to catch all the detail. |
| tony44 | yes, as their wealth grows so will the demand for commodities |
| Linda | Thanks, Joe. |
| JoeRoss | No book, Joy. |
| renato |
Sir, last time we typed, you said that there could be a rally on the stocks...Do you think still will be this rally? Or has this rally already happened? If it happened it was only in America... Because here we didn't see any rally... |
| Schweser | or do you think that a worldwide recession will drive down demand of commodities in general? |
| Joy | Thank you dwhitey44: I am glad you are back... I wanted to ask you about your experience with the Futures spread trader notebook. How well has it been? |
| JoeRoss | I just look at long term currency futures charts and then buy CDs that offer the best interest on those currencies. Right now Netherlands pays the best interest on euro CDs. |
| Wagner | Commodities......good Commodities......VALE5......GGBR4...CSNA3...PETR4 |
| dwhitey44 | Joy: I have learned a lot from it. Good foundation to stay under control with approach and management of capital even in options where I thought I knew a little. |
| JoeRoss | renato: I said that if the financial stocks rally the rest of the market will rally. The FED has pumped a lot of money into the economy. We have not yet seen the effect of all that money. |
| tony44 |
Joe, some guys like to say that commodities are simply running up with the drop in the dollar, they are simply keeping their "real value" which has to increase as the dollar decreases. Do you agree with this analysis? The guys that say this seem to make sense but the reports always try to shut them up for some reason. |
| renato | what do you think about ewz? |
| Joy | Joe: Do you buy those CDs through Interactive Broker too? Or do you use a retail bank? |
| JoeRoss | Schweser: There is no such thing as commodities in general. People are still going to need to eat, and to use energy. |
| marsh | tony44: In the rest of the world, outside the US, there are food riots because the prices have gone up. So that seems to be independent of the fall of the US dollar. |
| Joy | dwhitey44: Thank you! I am really fascinated by futures spread. Have you been using the notebook for good spread trading opportunities? Or do you write options only? |
| tony44 | but they say they have gone up because of the drop in the dollar and this is why we have the riots? |
| dwhitey44 | Tony44: I think some of these reports are correct if you consider the buying power of the dollar slips as commodity prices rise at almost a negative correlation - not sure if it is direct or with some multiplier. |
| marsh | Joy: do you know about Moore Research for futures spreads? |
| Joy | Yes it is scary to think the world can go crazy over food shortage, energy and inflation. |
| Tony | Marsh is right. I'm here right now in Bangkok....Marsh is right. |
| JoeRoss | tony44: I agree that to a large extent commodities are rising because the dollar is falling, but that is by no means all of the reason. There is a real shortage of the grains. Wheat shortage was due to weather. Corn and beans because they compete for the same acreage. |
| JoeRoss | renato: what is ewz? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I use an investment bank. |
| Joy | Joe: Yes, do tell about Moore research... I was checking out their site the other day and wondered how well the academic/historical data translated into this year's wild commodity market. |
| Schweser |
Joe, I am about to finish reading the core books (e.g. Trading is a Business, Trading the Ross Hook...), which I enjoyed immensely ...I really like your books...when I finish all three do you have a preference in terms of the order of reading your other books such as Trading by the Book, Trading Spreads and Seasonals and Trading Optures and Futions? |
| dwhitey44 | Joy: As a beginner in futures, I am staying close to what Andy discusses in The Trader Notebook. I have read the press on Moore Research's web site and am considering getting their report on meats as a starter since they have the 15 year history, etc. |
| Tony | So what does this shortage mean.....think now, think real hard....you would want to invest in seeds and fertilizers. |
| JoeRoss | tony44: Only some things are priced in dollars, not everything. You cannot ignore the real shortages that have nothing to do with the dollar. |
| marsh | Joy: You can check it out for yourself, the best way. You can follow current recommendations (paper trade) or see what the past recommendations were, and how they turned out. |
| tony44 | for sure, ending stocks are at record lows |
| renato | Is it not an index who reply the ibovespa in america? |
| JoeRoss | In Malaysia people are hoarding rice, that has nothing to do with the dollar. |
| Schweser | the rice rally is amazing |
| Tony | Joe: there's no tariff on rice now over here. |
| JoeRoss | Schweser: No preference. They are all different and they all treat different areas of trading, which is why I wrote them. |
| Joy |
dwhitey44: Thank you so much! If you don't mind me staying in touch with you on how well it is going, I would really appreciate it. I am new and excited for the opportunities but felt overwhelmed too... not sure which directions to start. Knowledge from an experienced trader like you is most appreciated. |
| renato | Do you have any expectation for PBR and RIO P? |
| JoeRoss | Everyone: Beware of Moore's. Their trades are increasingly failing. They are using old data, which doesn't apply to today's markets. |
| Schweser | Thank you so much...they are already making such a difference on my approach/outlook/attitude |
| JoeRoss | There's only 3 minutes left, so i will try to answer those questions that came in before 2100 hours. |
| marsh | That's good to know Joe, about Moore. If I use their trade, I still use what I learned from your books and your seminars. |
| tony44 | tony, seems like some people had that figured out a long time ago. Check on the charts on DE, MON, and TRA. Equipment, seed, and fertilizer company. |
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| JoeRoss | dwhitey: 15 year data is dangerous. It reflects old markets. That is exactly what you need to be aware of. |
| Schweser | Joe, which intraday data service do you use? |
| Tony | tony44: We talked about that 20 years ago....it's something a bit |
| dwhitey44 | Joe: Moore's latest report covers 2007 and back 15 years - I think. Is it the massive rise in commodities in 2007 until today that is making the enter and exit points false? |
| Tony | different this time. |
| amathevs21 | Hi Joe, Hi everyone |
| Joy | Joe: Last question - which investment bank you use for the CDs? |
| tony44 | ya i definitely missed all of these except Deere. |
| JoeRoss | PBR will rise and so will Rio. There are still some years to go in the commodity rally. |
| marsh | Growing corn for ethanol has changed all the grains and even meat fundamentals. |
| MartinS | marsh I agree |
| Joy | What is PBR and Rio, teachers? |
| tony44 | funny thing about the ethanol, the government will have a hard time backing out on that since it was their baby that they pumped so hard. |
| MartinS | ha ha yes that's probably true tony44 :-) |
| JoeRoss | Schweser: I am using Interactive Brokers data, Aspen Graphics and Genesis Trade Navigator--all three. |
| renato | Brazilian Oil Company and Vale do Rio Doce. |
| zendre | Joy: stocks of energy and metals company. |
| JoeRoss | amathevs you are an hour late. |
| Joy | THANK YOU renato and zendre |
| Linda | Joy, thanks for asking the questions. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: It is a private bank and I cannot reveal it here. |
| Joy | THANK YOU Linda! Nice meeting you! |
| marsh | For instance, there are spread and positions trades that involve corn falling in price from July to December. Very traditional. But will they work this year? Who knows, with the crazy ethanol caused volatility. |
| Schweser | Thank you, do you clear through interactive? |
| Joy | Joe: OK... thanks still! It is 10 and I know you need to go... THANK YOU SO MUCH as always! You are simply THE BEST! |
| zendre | bye everyone! |
| Wagner | PBR.............PETR4..........PETR3..........Petrobrás |
| JoeRoss | Schweser: I clear thru IB. |
| Wagner | bye...bye...........everbody...have a nice weekend |
| sb123 | marsh...talk about the daytrade margin again... |
| dwhitey44 | Enjoyed the exchange and knowledge that permeates this group. Have a great tomorrow! |
| marsh | Thanks Joe, great chat. |
| marsh | Learned a lot. |
| sb123 | how does it fool the system to allowing this?? |
| yan | Thanks Joe - nice chat |
| JoeRoss | One of the major things that is making Moore's have less value is the action of the commodity funds. They have a major impact on the commodity markets. |
| renato | Bye everyone...and thank you Joe |
| JoeRoss | Good night all. |
| JoeRoss | I need my rest, |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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