Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
| amathevs21 joined. | |
| amathevs21 | Hi everybody, Hi Joe's |
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| JoeRoss joined. | |
| yan | Hi Joe. |
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| amathevs21 | Hello Joe's |
| JoeRoss | Hi yan, everybody |
| kiwidave | Hi. |
| amathevs21 | Hi Kiwi |
| kiwidave | HI amathevs |
| kiwidave | Well Joe, the Traders Notebook is very good. Have learnt more since signing up and there a few now with my name on them so waiting for an entry point |
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| amathevs21 | Good Kiwi. |
| JoeRoss | Gold seems to be falling today and tonight. |
| amathevs21 | IC. |
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| amathevs21 | JOE: Can you help me Joe? |
| JoeRoss | Sounds good kiwi. |
| kiwidave | Yes, Andy is very clued up. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: As Currencies Traders - what must we see in COT Reports? |
| amathevs21 | Joe: a Commercial, Large, Small? |
| JoeRoss | amathevs: I might be able to help you, if I knew what it was. |
| JoeRoss | Hi everyone who has come in. |
| amathevs21 | Hello Joe. |
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| amathevs21 | Joe: COT is a Commitment Of Traders Reports. |
| JoeRoss | amathevs: I answered your post in the forum just a few minutes ago. I rarely look at the COT report. I don't use it at all for currencies. I really don't know what you should be looking for. |
| BigBlueSky | Good evening everybody. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: OIC, Thanks Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Hi sky. |
| jaja | I've just started looking at tick charts from the TLOC seminar and elsewhere. They look very helpful. Do you use them much? |
| JoeRoss | jaja: I use them when I want to see a trend where there is no trend on the time chart. |
| JoeRoss | I think tick charts are really good. They can shape a market so that it looks pretty much the way you want it to look. |
| jaja | The trends look "cleaner" on the tick charts, even when there is a trend on the time chart. |
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| MartinS | Hi. |
| JoeRoss | jaja: That's true, because you can often get more info on a tick chart than on a time chart. For example on a 15 minute chart, in 30 minutes you will see 2 bars. But on a tick chart you might see many bars during those same 30 minutes. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Martin. |
| MartinS | Very slow tonight :-) |
| MartinS | Gold is pulling back. |
| MartinS | But Oil is at new highs. |
| JoeRoss | The gold/oil ratio is wider than I have ever seen it. Sooner or later gold has to move up or oil has to move down, or maybe both. |
| MartinS | Ok interesting. |
| jaja | Re. the gold oil ratio, the fundamentals might have changed?? |
| JoeRoss | jaja: It's possible, but I don't think it has changed that much. Right now gold and oil are too far apart. Something has to give. |
| MartinS | I would not be surprised if Oil has a correction soon. |
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| MartinS | To the 109 area. |
| JoeRoss | Historically, an ounce of gold should buy close to 15 barrels of oil. Right now it is only around 7.5 barrels of oil |
| JoeRoss | Martin: I think maybe as far back as $80. |
| JoeRoss | It's going to be interesting to see what happens. |
| jaja | That's a a big difference. Oil is certainly out of whack right now. I think that the traders are making up for some bad real estate investments. But peak oil is now more credible than ever. |
| jaja | Twilight in the Desert by Simmons is a good book on the subject of peak oil. |
| JoeRoss | If gold were at 1000 and oil was at 80 it would still translate to only 12.5 barrels of oil, less than the historical amount. |
| MartinS | I agree when Oil will correct the 50-120 movement the 80 zone should hold |
| kiwidave | They are still talking oil up to as far as $121 poss $125 here but that's just what they are saying |
| JoeRoss | When oil prices get too high, people cut back. And they use other sources of energy. That will bring the price down. but it seems it could move to the 125-130 range first. |
| MartinS | It's just that the world is addicted to oil :-) |
| JoeRoss | I think 120-130 will be the magic number at which oil will no longer be affordable to a lot of people. |
| MartinS | Do you mean the rich world? |
| JoeRoss | They may be addicted, but the withdrawal pains will soon come :-) |
| MartinS | No one that I know here in Sweden is cutting back on gasoline. |
| JoeRoss | Martin: Yes the rich world. The poor world already can't afford it. |
| MartinS | Driving less etc. |
| jaja | I fill up less than twice a month. I'm tapering off. |
| jaja | The impact of oil on food prices is another fine mess that we've got ourselves into. |
| kiwidave | I think now countries are screaming about the price now as it is putting up there inflation on cost of goods OZ went up another 1% today and now they talking more interest rate rises. |
| JoeRoss | Martin: That's because Sweden is booming right now. But we are seeing some people cutting back here in the U.S. Less driving, cancelling vacations, less flying. |
| MartinS | Joe: do you agree on peak oil? |
| JoeRoss | jaja: Food riots in 33 countries. It is really getting bad. |
| MartinS | Yes Sweden is doing fine. |
| jaja | My 2 cents on peak oil: ABSOLUTELY. |
| JoeRoss | A lot of people are going hungry. I am putting in extra rows of plantings in my garden to be able to give a lot of food away. |
| MartinS | really?? |
| kiwidave | You certainly seemed to have packed the garden out |
| MartinS | Hungry ? |
| amathevs21 | Joe: it is true Joe? |
| JoeRoss | Martin: I have mixed feelings about peak oil. Maybe I know too much. |
| MartinS | Joe: what do you mean? |
| kiwidave | Plenty of oil about just not pumping enough of it. |
| JoeRoss | Well I know there are vast oil deposits in Canadian sands, and in some of the northern tier states in the US there is more oil in shale than in all of the middle east. There's still plenty of oil in Texas. |
| JoeRoss | A huge discovery has been made in the gulf of Mexico and another one off the coast of Argentina. |
| MartinS | Interesting chart RR #F Rough Rice is booming. |
| kiwidave | Drilling off the coast of NZ |
| MartinS | But the price is still going up. |
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| jaja |
Right now, the world uses a Billion barrels of oil every 12 days. Petrobras recently made a HUGE 6 Billion barrel discovery - which is a very big deal, but it will take years to put on line. That will fuel the world for a couple of months. |
| JoeRoss | People in Malaysia are hoarding rice. The government is trying to put more acreage to rice plantings. |
| amathevs21 | Hello Acman my man. How r u today? |
| JoeRoss | Hi acman. |
| MartinS | Why not grow potatoes? That has saved people before. |
| JoeRoss | Potatoes don't grow in wetlands where you grow rice. |
| MartinS | Yes. |
| MartinS | You know more :-) |
| JoeRoss | Potatoes don't export very well, either. |
| acman | Hi Joe. I was in Acapulco last week and one of the guys trades energy with a big brokerage and your consumption data is right on. |
| JoeRoss | Have you ever smelled a bag of rotten potatoes, which is what happens to them on ships? |
| acman | Funny thing is we export gas to Mexico!! |
| JoeRoss | If you have, you will never forget it. |
| acman | The rotten potatoes sounds like good for biofuel. |
| MartinS | Here in Sweden we eat a lot of potatoes. |
| jaja | The Incas can show the world how to dry them and rehydrate them. The dried potatoes don't rot and they weigh a lot less. |
| JoeRoss | The stench is awful. |
| JoeRoss | jaja: But drying potatoes adds to the cost, and rehydration loses a lot of the food value. In the navy we sure ate a lot of them. |
| acman | When I went back to school, I ate a can of tuna and a potato for many months at lunch time. |
| JoeRoss | acman: You were probably healthy doing it. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Larry. |
| jaja | That may be, but a dried potato that weighs about as much as a ping pong ball is something to behold. |
| acman | It was great and lunch was way under $1. |
| JoeRoss | Next year I hope to grow about 600 pounds of tomatoes. I can't eat them all so the rest go to meals on wheels. |
| JoeRoss | That will be my bit to help people who are hungry. Also I have an abundance of strawberries and cherries, and hopefully blueberries. |
| JoeRoss | Have any of you guys seen the Tomato/Potato plant? |
| jaja | Texas blueberries... just doesn't seem right. |
| JoeRoss | It grows tomatoes above ground and potatoes in the ground. It is real. |
| acman | Deer eat anything that isn't toxic. I would have to remove the deer and they are nice to watch in the yard. No garden here. |
| JoeRoss | jaja: they are not as good as the ones from Oregon, but they are still okay. |
| Larry | Joe, can you tell us about your forex stealth course? |
| BigBlueSky | I thought this is a gardening chat. |
| JoeRoss | Larry: Forex Stealth is a discretionary method for trading 3 forex pairs. EUR/SKE, AUD/ NZD, and EUR/ CHF. |
| JoeRoss | These are not easily traded in futures, because SKE and NZD are very illiquid in futures. |
| Larry | Does it take long to learn? |
| JoeRoss | Larry: It takes about 15 minutes to learn if you are a slow reader |
| Larry | Wow! |
| amathevs21 | Impressive Joe |
| JoeRoss | It is a method that can be used by traders who have small accounts. |
| Larry | Is it based on momentum breakouts? |
| BigBlueSky | Joe, what is a small account in your book? |
| JoeRoss | Larry: I don't know the basis for it. It was sent to us by one of our German students and we agreed to market it and maintain it. |
| JoeRoss | Well, the guy who created the method has only 5,000 euros |
| BigBlueSky | Ok. |
| kiwidave | Can this be traded in the conventional method or is it electronic only? |
| Larry | So there is no tech analysis. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: Electronic only. |
| JoeRoss | I just happened to notice crude oil is in backwardation. May is higher than June. |
| Larry | How can you be sure it works? |
| JoeRoss | Larry: There may be a moving average involved as a filter. |
| JoeRoss | Larry: We can be sure because we have tested it with real money. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: are the DMAC 25x5 or 7x5? |
| Larry | Good. |
| JoeRoss | amathevs: No they are different |
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| amathevs21 | Joe, so what the filter you used moving average? |
| JoeRoss | Hi aslv |
| aslv2000 | Hi Joe, sorry for being late |
| JoeRoss | amathevs: I can't reveal that. |
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| jaja | Joe, |
| amathevs21 | Joe: OK Joe no problem, i understand that |
| JoeRoss | Hi Tony |
| Larry | Many systems are a problem as they require waiting a long time for a setup. |
| Tony | HI....I just got up....here in Bangkok |
| JoeRoss | Larry: the Forex Stealth Method does not trade every day. |
| amathevs21 | Hello Tony |
| Larry | How often? |
| yan | Joe, are any of the bond methods still above the equity curve? |
| JoeRoss | Larry 2-3 times a week |
| Tony | Hi...Matt |
| jaja | Have the markets always been this correlated? I mean, the Euro goes up, so do oil and crude. The ES goes down and the bonds go up. i don't mind trading what I see, but when I need to have my eyes on 5 charts simultaneously, I run out of eyes. |
| amathevs21 | Hi Tony |
| JoeRoss | yan: I believe they are all above the equity curve, but I haven't looked this week. |
| Larry | How big are the stops? |
| JoeRoss | Larry: I don't remember. It is not one of the methods I am trading. |
| Tony | Advice to all.....be careful with a guy by the name of Bill Poulous |
| kiwidave | Why. |
| aslv2000 | Joe, I just ended reading your "day trading" book and I liked it very much. Would you say that all the techniques you teach in this book are applicable to the 5 minute chart with the e-mini s&p? |
| Larry | Been getting email from paulous |
| amathevs21 | Tony: Why Tony? |
| Tony | I think it's a scam |
| JoeRoss | Larry: I just looked up a couple of things about the method. It trades on average 5 times a week. |
| amathevs21 | Tony: Can you explain why? |
| Larry | Once a day not bad. |
| Tony | No way can you trade without taking a loss. |
| amathevs21 | Tony: OIC |
| JoeRoss | aslv: Yes, they are applicable to 5 minute charts. |
| aslv2000 | TX. |
| Tony | amathevs21....he's offering a trading plan for free....and then sucks you in on something else. |
| Theone | How about three minute and one minute charts? |
| JoeRoss | Larry: But you trade only one pair each day. You can get more trades by adjusting the parameters. |
| JoeRoss | Or fewer trades. Its up to you |
| amathevs21 | Joe: So the Forex Stealth just only can trade 1 of that 3 pairs |
| JoeRoss | Forex Stealth uses a Rate of change indicator and an Average Ture Range indicator. |
| Larry | Sounds so simple |
| kiwidave | Joe: have to go, have fill up the big gas guzzling car that I have before the price of fuel goes up again tomorrow... just kidding... catch ya later |
| amathevs21 | Joe: or maybe 3 together? |
| jaja | Good night all. |
| JoeRoss | Theone: You can use the material in any market provided you can see enough movement to make some money. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: Ok Jaja see you next week |
| Theone | Thanks. happy trading! |
| JoeRoss | You can read the particulars from our website: Forex Method |
| acman | Happy trading everyone! |
| amathevs21 | Joe: See you Acman |
| Larry | I'm demoing a forex method now which is entirely mechanical |
| amathevs21 | Larry: some of that, i agree Larry |
| Larry | Great if you find it hard to make decisions |
| JoeRoss | Let us know how it is when you trade it with real money |
| amathevs21 | Larry: exactly |
| Larry | Okay. |
| JoeRoss | Sad to say, we have seen numerous systems and methods that work in demo trading, but fall apart in real trading. |
| Larry | Your book on spreads just arrived. |
| amathevs21 | Larry: but we can make an expert advisor program to our Metatrader if we have problem to make a decision |
| JoeRoss | I hope you enjoy it. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: I Agree Joe |
| JoeRoss | It's hard to believe but it's time to go. |
| JoeRoss | This chat went very fast. |
| Larry | I use track&trade software |
| JoeRoss | Thanks for your input. |
| BigBlueSky | Good night! |
| JoeRoss | See you next week. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: You're welcome Joe |
| Tony | So long Joe |
| amathevs21 | Joe: See you Joe, Good Night & GOD Bless You |
| JoeRoss | Good night all. |
| JoeRoss | Thanks for the blessing. :-) |
| amathevs21 | Joe: OK you're Welcome Joe. |
| amathevs21 | Larry: I used a Metatrader.4 Sometimes FX-Trek, sometimes Charts from netdania |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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