Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| JoeRoss | Happy New Year, one and all. |
| cumbers | happy new year to you |
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| Joy | Joe: Happy New Year to you again! |
| JoeRoss | Anyone who is new, please ask questions and make comments. Don't be shy. Anything about trading, markets, or the economy is okay |
| JoeRoss | We really had a nice group for the European chat today. |
| Joy | Marsh: Good evening to you! Hope you are doing well :-) |
| Joy | Joe: Yes, a lot of excitement! |
| JoeRoss | Yeah! That means a lot of editing for me tomorrow morning. |
| jlcowerd | I am new. I am here to learn and find my 'trading style. Thanks |
| JoeRoss | We are here to teach you jl |
| JoeRoss | What would you like to know? |
| jlcowerd | I have never traded. I am reading and reviewing your books. I like the 'Spiritual Sections'. I think it keeps it in balance and appreciate it. I don't know how to zero in on a beginning area to learn |
| JoeRoss |
jl: You could try taking our "Beginner's Course"
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| cumbers | some of the newsletters I read are promoting two things at the moment: gold and japan - what do you think? |
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| jlcowerd | The one on futures? In the middle of it |
| JoeRoss | Yep, that one. |
| JoeRoss | From there go to the Law of Charts video course. |
| JoeRoss | cumbers: I think you can make money in any market. Trade the ones that look good to you. |
| Dean | Long time no see Joe.....how you doing my friend |
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| JoeRoss | I'm fine Dean. I just got back from 3 weeks at a health farm. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you for editing the chat logs for us to revisit! I appreciate your generous time! |
| JoeRoss | How are you, Dean? Still farming? |
| Dean | yes |
| Joy | Joe: I have a quick question. Most of your Hot Box recommendations are covered call options. Is it because the put strategy has limited upside potential and your picks usually are bullish? |
| jafa | Joe, did Alan come up with a data source for his option analysis? Are you still planning to launch the advanced options course in Feb? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: The Put strategies were good until a couple of weeks ago. Now the covered call are best. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you! I guess it is because the market has turned up for now. Is that right? |
| JoeRoss | jafa: I don't know about the data source, I haven't had a chance to talk to Alan. Yes, we are still planning to launch the advanced options course. We had some technical problems that set us back a few weeks on that seminar. Should be available by the end of January. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: That is right. The Puts were good on healthy stocks that couldn't go much lower. |
| JoeRoss | acman must have struck oil in his backyard. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you! acman struck oil? All right!! |
| JoeRoss | He's wearing an oil man's uniform. He looks like a Saudi. |
| acman | I have solar water heater equipment coming direct from China. May distribute it here. Should arrive in a few weeks direct to Houston. Excited about having imported direct from china. US based stuff is hand made. Will heat my water and hot tub cheaply for future. |
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| Joy | Joe: You are so funny! Speaking of oil... In the fall you had a writing about insiders buying on Coal… crude oil… natural gas… pipelines… basically energy shares. Do you still see that trend and bullishness in the energy sector? |
| cumbers | watch the quality though |
| t.kaderavek | Good evening all |
| JoeRoss | Joy: On energy, not right now, and Obama is down on coal. I don't know how much it will hurt the coal business. |
| jlcowerd | Joe: After the futures course, and Law of charts, I take it commodities is a safe field to begin learning? I looked at forex but it drove me crazy, even though I see some info on your site |
| acman | cumbers, will test that on my own house first. China makes everything here, big companies just stick a brand on it and mark it up 4 to 10 times. |
| Joy | Joe: Understood... I guess we will have to switch from energy stocks to 'green' stocks, whatever they are :-) |
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| netwonc | those people in harriman tennessee are sure down on coal |
| JoeRoss | jl: I am not a proponent of trading forex, but since people insist on trading forex, i do my best to help them. I am even going to put a forex trading seminar out there soon. Commodities are no safer than any other thing. It's the way you manage trades that provides the safety. |
| JoeRoss | Welcome latecomers. |
| acman | The UYM etf tracks the CRB pretty well. The chart of UYM and CRB look pretty close. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I tried something new. I had a half bushel of green tomatoes at the end of the season. I harvested them, sliced them, and dehydrated them. They are delicious. |
| acman | joe: aren't they a bit acid at that stage? |
| JoeRoss | acman: ETFs are becoming more popular every day. I have a friend who trades the S&P through an ETF and he has been cleaning up. |
| Joy | Joe: That sounds awesome - dehydrating too?! Wow, I want to copy your new crop idea!! |
| JoeRoss | acman: Surprisingly, no. Not at all acid. |
| Joy | acman: There! New vegetarian dish ideas for us. |
| JoeRoss | They are slightly tart, but that makes them tangy. According to the nutrition data, they actually have a lot of sugar. |
| jafa | He just trades the SP ETF instead of the ES? |
| JoeRoss | jafa: That's correct. And he says it is much smoother than trading the E-mini futures. |
| marsh | Joe, what time frame is he trading the SP ETF? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: 5 minute chart |
| acman |
Joe: I have been trading the R2k etf UWM and a few others. Since November I have been in the CNBC trading competition and am up around 120 to 160% on all 5 portfolios using the etfs. I can't get the performance of my real accounts since I can't do the trades intraday in that contest but I am in the top 0.2%! I am using the Law of Charts. |
| Joy | Joe: I also have a question on ETFs... they gap open a lot and I don't know how to handle them. Should I keep an eye on the related futures contract moves and anticipate that will be the moves for ETFs too? |
| jafa | Joe, any idea of the Symbol he's trading? |
| JoeRoss | Super! Great to hear, acman. |
| acman | Joy: I make an extra few percent. If the major etf gaps in the morning, you can sell off some of the position pre opening and buy back after opening. The gaps usually are filled. |
| JoeRoss | jafa: He told me, but I don't remember. I should know it, and it is right on the tip of my keyboard :-) |
| JoeRoss | It's the one that trades on AMEX |
| acman | jafa: the Pro shares are great. SSO, UWM, UYG, UYM, QLD. |
| JoeRoss | I just remembered, I think. SPY |
| JoeRoss | SPYDER??? |
| jafa | thanks |
| Joy | acman: Thank you for your words of wisdom! You are always so helpful :-) |
| JoeRoss | He said he is trading strictly The Law of Charts. He primarily trades straight out of "Trading is a Business." |
| acman | joy: good to see you still hanging in there and up to date on the market action. |
| JoeRoss | What is interesting to me is that my friend managed money for 13 years using all kinds of indicators. Now he says he just trades the 1-2-3s and the Ross Hooks, and the matching congestions ahead of the breakout of previous highs and lows. It is all described in "Trading is a Business." |
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| Joy | Joe: The indexes often show major moves (often reversals) at the closing minutes. For example, today the Dow reversed up with huge volume in the closing time. Does that mean (1) the market is generally maintaining an up move, with (2) profit taking during the day, and (3) climbing back up due to short squeeze at closing? |
| JoeRoss | My friend is Mark Cherlin, the guy who markets NexTrend. He started trading again after laying off trading for about 11 years. |
| jafa | Regarding the indicators, doesn't it say somewhere something about beware of false gods... |
| JoeRoss | Joy, It is usually profit taking if the market has been down during the day. But I can't say for sure that it's not a squeeze as well. |
| acman |
Joe: I watch on different time frames and after watching this for months, I watch around the Central Time 9:00 the 12:30 to 1pm and the 2:15 till closing time period and look for changing in direction. 3min, 5, 8, 20, 30, 90 min will tell the story. Also the TF (R2K) weekly overlaps mostly, today was almost a given for a drop as we were outside of last weeks range Monday and Tuesday! |
| JoeRoss | True jafa. I only use indicators in special situations. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you! That is funny about Mark! I read your writing about Mark and how great NexTrend is. But does that mean he developed all the wonderful indicators and features but he just ended using 1-2-3s and Rhs anyway? He can use Marsh's program :-) |
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| JoeRoss | Joy: He will not use Trade Station. He is devoted to NexTrend. They are now looking into having it with live data. If so, it will be the fastest program out there, with superb charts. |
| Joy | Joe: Wow, that is impressive! I do admire Mark and his spirit. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: When you are going to market trading software, you almost have to put in everything that anyone might ask for, which includes every indicator under the sun.. |
| JoeRoss | Welcome stephen and kardel |
| Stephen | Just joined. Sorry if I'm interrupting. I just purchased Trading by the Book and was wondering if the information in Day Trading is substantially different. Thanks. |
| t.kaderavek | Joe, I have a question concerning natural gas. There has been a serious limitation on the delivery of natural gas from Russia into Europe. Could this have an effect (i.e. rising price) on the financial products connected to natural gas that are traded on the U.S. exchanges? |
| jafa | The software is great, but his timing regarding the selling of the software couldn't be worse. I feel for him. |
| JoeRoss | stephen: Yes, the info is substantially different. That goes for all of the books. What would be the point in writing the same book 4 times? |
| JoeRoss | t: Which financial products do you have in mind? |
| t.kaderavek | Joe, futures and etf |
| JoeRoss | t: I really don't see a connection between a shortage of natural gas in Europe and the financial futures and stocks in the U.S. |
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| JoeRoss | jafa: You are right. Both times he has come to market with his software, the bottom fell out of the market and people stopped trading. :-( |
| Joy | Joe: Even though this rally may just be temporary, do you believe the crowd is back for bargain hunting? Volume has not been very impressive. |
| acman | joy: Of course I use marsh's program. It paints a rembrandt for me. Easy to see, not a picasso like a lot of indicators do. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I don't see a lot of bargain hunters among the retail traders, but some of the big funds are jumping in more and more each day. They are buying bargains. |
| jafa | Marsh, what is this program of yours that I'm hearing so much about? |
| Joy | Joe: Does that mean the Main Street is still scared but the Professional/insiders are back? |
| t.kaderavek | Joe, I meant the futures for natural gas and the etf for natural gas that are traded on the U.S. exchanges. But to be honest the simple logic tells me that the effect of the shortage from Russia into Europe on prices in the U.S. should be minimal. |
| jafa | thanks |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Main Street is terrified. Many professionals are coming back and many are taking the high risk currencies even though they are not getting much interest on them. |
| acman | Joe, I have been in a few stocks like MWE and BC that the funds seem to be getting back into. They seem to be targeting sectors with high dividend yields. The stocks are mostly in a trading range for 4 weeks or so then jump. Some of the stocks I am researching are trading at 20% of book value and have come down 90% off their highs. |
| Joy | Joe: Soooo, are the professionals back because they are impatient, wanting to make it happen, bored, needing to make a profit (i.e., without the fundamental supporting the trades?) |
| JoeRoss | t: you finally made it clear what you want. The only way NG in the US will be affected is if Europe starts buying NG from the US. But I think then it would have to be liquefied and shipped. this could drive NG prices higher in the U.S. |
| Joy | acman: You are right :-) And you will have to teach me :-) Do I understand this correctly that your observation shows the TF daily prices usually fall within the weekly range? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: They are back because they know they can't pick the bottom and they are seeing real bargains out there. The kind acman is talking about. Stocks with huge discounts to their true value. |
| acman | joy: Yes, look at the weekly and see how often it doesn't overlap. Very seldom do they not overlap by most of the previous weeks range. |
| Joy | Joe: Ah, thank you! I should have acman as my 'fund manager' - real foresight :-) |
| acman | Joy: I am honest so I can't run a fund. |
| Joy | acman: You are so funny! You can sell your research then for an honest buck. |
| t.kaderavek | Joe, that is what I thought. I think that there are easier ways for the European states to get NG, before being forced to buy from the US. Thank you for your thoughts. |
| JoeRoss | I have a book on how to produce natural gas from pig poop. |
| acman | Joy: with Joe's methodology, you are better off with your own trading. I have over 80% of my money in the UWM and like it because it is the market. I don't have to try to spend much time picking, just timing. |
| JoeRoss | We were thinking of trying it when I was in South Africa |
| Joy | Joe: You are too too funny tonight... I studied one of your lessons on "market break" and wondered how trade management looked like for a market break. |
| Joy |
For example, on a daily chart, do I place a market order as soon as I see a market break (i.e., prices gapped up and broke out from the prior lower close)? Or should I wait to see if prices trading back to fill the gap first, and enter the following day via limit order, perhaps buying at 1 tick above the high of the bar signaling market break? |
| marsh | Joe: were you going to ferment monkey poop? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Wait for the gap to fill. |
| acman | I saw a discovery channel presentation on turkey tech and one of the farms produce over a million gal of diesel fuel from the oils removed in the process. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Pig poop is the best. |
| Joy | Joe: THANK YOU! Sorry I broke off the good gas joke :-) |
| acman | I prefer heating my water with solar! ZERO green house gas. |
| JoeRoss | If we leave things up to the Greens, all animals will be outlawed coz they all produce green house gas. After all the animals are killed off, they can start euthanizing humans. Old useless people, mentally retarded, Alzheimer victims, cancer victims--they all produce greenhouse gas. |
| marsh | Joe: Where were the pigs in relation to where you lived? |
| JoeRoss | It is very dangerous because the real thing has no odor. It is pure methane, and you can blow yourself off the map if you are not real careful. |
| JoeRoss | The NG we get domestically has an odor added to it so that you can smell it. |
| acman | We used to generate that stuff with lots of wisconsin beer and a lighter! |
| JoeRoss | marsh: The only pigs around were wild. We would have had to start our own herd. |
| jafa | Joe, might the ETF's be a good way to trade currencies, oil, etc - owing to the smoothness of them? Can you short ETF's fairly easily? |
| marsh | Joe: I see. Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | jafa: yes to all |
| jafa | The odor is H2S. |
| jafa | Thanks |
| JoeRoss | jafa Is that hydrogen sulfide? |
| jafa | Yes Joe. That's it. It's poisonous above 10 pm, but small concentration it just stinks a lot. |
| jafa | that's poisonous, not some Texas variant on a common word. |
| acman |
Jafa: watch the shorting, with all this money going back into the market, the shorts won't last long. Place close stops. Check out TWM and UWM it's opposite. My ratio isn't good on the TWM and look what happen to TWM on 12/5. I don't bother with it anymore, hands are burned with a little overall profit. |
| jafa | What do you mean about a bad ratio? |
| acman | jafa: my win/loss ratio |
| Joy | acman: Do you use a ratio between the two ETFs to balance between long/short for the underlying TF? |
| jafa | thanks |
| Joy | Joe: Speaking of TF, did you start your experiment of day trading 1 contract only to find the common problems for a small account trader? |
| Joy | Or did you choose the covered call strategy instead? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I started both today. |
| Joy | How did it go? |
| Joy | I am so excited to hear. |
| JoeRoss | I won :-D |
| Joy | YEAH, of course! |
| acman |
It is hard to balance them as they are supposed to opposite but my faith on the short ETF was shaken on 12/5 when they readjusted the short etf TWM. Kramer is really against the short etf's as well as no up tick rule. They may go away. |
| Joy | Did you find some lessons to share with a small, beginning trader like me, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Not yet. It was the same as if I was trading multiple lots. |
| JoeRoss | Mainly coz I was scalping. |
| Joy | Joe: THANK YOU! |
| Joy | acman: Do you mean ALL short ETFs may go away? |
| JoeRoss | I scalped 1 contract for $100 in TF and you already know about the 2 stock trades. |
| JoeRoss | Acman, Marsh, Joy. I leave the chat in your capable hands. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you again for your wonderful lessons! |
| Joy | So glad to see you again for the new year! |
| JoeRoss | just please finish before 4AM or I won't get it to edit until late tomorrow. |
| Joy | :-) |
| JoeRoss | Good night all. |
| JoeRoss | Thanks for another fun chat! |
| marsh | Thanks Joe, Goodnight. |
| t.kaderavek | Good night |
| Joy | Have a lovely night Joe! |
| jafa | Good night |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
