Chat with Joe Ross

Chat log from: Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time!

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MartinS	hallo
JoeRoss	Good evening (or whatever time of day it is for you) everyone
clone	Hello joe......i have seen a trading room.......make calls .like the es will retrace 12 points form a certain level......and they show that were correct...e.t.c......how do do they do that by measuring the swings using fibbs e.t.c..............do you measure price for targets ?
JoeRoss	clone: I have done that in the past. It is fairly accurate.
JoeRoss	There are several ways to do it, but I can't describe them here.
clone	wow.....ok.ty
JoeRoss	You can measure using waves; Fibs; range height; heads and shoulder, flags, pennants, etc.
clone	is it in a certain book of yours
JoeRoss	clone: One or two of those are in the books, but I don't remember where :-)
Joy	Joe: Good evening! I hope you have had a nice nap and feel well rested now.
clone	i have had some success using the 123's and measuring.
JoeRoss	I wrote about it in my newsletters over the years.
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cumbers	Euro/ Swiss pair short term is up - do you think medium term down still?
JoeRoss	Welcome Martin
MartinS	Hi everyone
clone	ok thanks joe
MartinS	so..are we in a new bull market ? :-)
JoeRoss	cumbers: I think swiss has to outperform euro. Europe is in trouble.
cumbers	thanks
JoeRoss	Martin: Bull market in what? There are many markets.
MartinS	Joe: really ? what about sweden ? The krona has fallen quite a lot against the Euro
JoeRoss	Martin: I really don't know much about sweden.
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JoeRoss	I am also wondering why Sweden is having trouble against the euro.
MartinS	I bought Euro 2002 and have no problems with this development ..a weak currency is a trademark of sweden
JoeRoss	Martin: strange trademark. Krona was the strongest currency against the dollar in 2007, stronger even than euro
MartinS	really ? ok but very weak now
MartinS	Our krona is usually very weak in recessions
JoeRoss	Martin: It could be. As I said, I'm not terribly familiar with krona.
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MartinS	ok np :-)
JoeRoss	welcome jafa and pedro
pedro	thanks
jafa	thanks Joe
JoeRoss	Did anybody make any great trades today?
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JoeRoss	Hi wonc
jafa	I made a great decision to sit on the sidelines. Fed meeting day is too much fun for me.
netwonc	Hi Joe
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JoeRoss	jafa: That was a wise decision. I figured the Fed wouldn't have very much to say, Just a lot of smoke and mirrors.
JoeRoss	Welcome Lou
Lou101	hi joe
Joy	Joe: I could not understand why DX showed strength after the Fed said rates would be kept low for an extended period.
JoeRoss	If anyone is new, feel free to jump in with comments, questions, things about anything as long as it's clean
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JoeRoss	Joy: Nothing has changed for the dollar. It is still being bought through repatriation and carry trade unwinding.
JoeRoss	Joy: We may be entering a multi-year dollar up trend -- The picture is changing dramatically every week.
Joy	Joe: WOW! That is new information indeed! Thank you! This unwinding is taking a long time... Yen is still strong too.
MartinS	Joe really? multi year up trend?
jafa	There are some things that don't look too good for the Euro.
JoeRoss	Joy: It will be spelled out in detail in Traders Money Club 2.06 and 2.07 already written but not yet released.
JoeRoss	Martin: it is looking more and more like that's what is going to happen.
marsh	Then maybe a trip to Europe won't be so expensive.
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! Cannot wait to read...
MartinS	reasons for this in TMC?
Joy	marsh: Awesome idea! Maybe I will travel to Europe for the first time ;-)
JoeRoss	jafa: actually many things are not looking good for euro, which is part of the reason the dollar is rising. Dollar is the anti-euro.
Joy	acman: How are you, my friend? So good to see you.
MartinS	will this be bullish or bearish for stocks in the US ?
JoeRoss	marsh: True. Some are now calling for the euro to drop to 110.
jafa	I was just trying to be your straight man Joe. ::cool
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JoeRoss	Martin. It really won't be related to the stock market. Stocks may have a brief rally, but it will be only a pause before we get a new low.
acman	Joy: Hello, missed you last week. Doing good here. getting ready for another vacation. Last until fall.
JoeRoss	jafa: You are a good straight man :-)
MartinS	Joe: many years ago I was bearish regarding the Eur long term ..I voted no in our referendum here in sweden but the Eur has been pretty stable.
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JoeRoss	acman: Me too! going on a cruise end of Feb.
MartinS	But maybe its a house of cards.
Lou101	Since I haven't been able to view the videos due to technical problems that I haven't been able to access via the password - is the 72 hour time clock going to start when I actually have viewing time occur?
JoeRoss	Martin: In TMC 2.07 I will reveal the case for the end of the euro.
JoeRoss	Not my opinion, but a lot of facts.
MartinS	Joe: do you think we will see the DM again?
JoeRoss	Martin: The DM or maybe something as yet unnamed.
Joy	acman: Yes, I am sorry I missed Joe's chat last week due to business travel for work. I guess You cannot take a vacation in the heat of summer. Too bad... you could be somewhere else cool... like New England :-)
acman	Alright Joe: cruising is fun. nothing more relaxing than miniature golf in the wind and waves where the ball goes where the ship decides and has very little to do with what you do. Sort of like the markets and thinking you can move the market.
MartinS	that would be a disaster ..worse than 1992
JoeRoss	Martin: The arguments for the demise of the euro are compelling.
acman	Joy: you trading now? 1 contract?
marsh	It seems amazing that the Euro would slide against the dollar. I though the US was in the worst financial shape any country could be in right now.
JoeRoss	I think it was Doug casey who said: "the dollar is an IOU from a bankrupt government. But the euro is an IOU from nothing."
marsh	And Europe is worse than us?
MartinS	look at the GBP
JoeRoss	marsh: The Euro zone is in considerably worse shape than the US
Lou101	In Trading by The Book when I do the MacD Day by Day as you suggest instead of going with the computer end of the week numbers, I have been observing that when I get the third up signal, that on the fourth day - I would take a Long position at a tick above the high of the 3rd day up signal. And reverse for a short. Is this correct?
jafa	They bank debt to GDP is a lot worse and they hold much more of the emerging countries' debt.
MartinS	Joe so which IOU is the best? Yen? CHF?
acman	This may help bring the value of real money (precious metal coins) up in value.
jafa	That's the euro zone and I meant their bank debt...
MartinS	acman not in a deflation
JoeRoss	Lou, that's correct.
JoeRoss	jafa: YOu hit it the nail on the head.
JoeRoss	Martin: CHF
MartinS	ok thanks Yen has been the strongest one so far ...right?
MartinS	but maybe that will change
JoeRoss	Martin: Yen has been rising, but that has nothing to do with strength any more than the dollars rise has to do with strength.
MartinS	hmm just market noise or what?
JoeRoss	Martin: Just people repatriating yen.
MartinS	ok
JoeRoss	and unwinding the carry trade.
JoeRoss	I've been writing a lot of covered calls in this market climate.
JoeRoss	Nice way to get income with little or no risk.
tipiring	What is your search criteria for finding calls?
acman	how much is commission on selling a covered call?
Joy	Joe: Do you expect the strategy to work till this mini-rally runs its course by end of Q1? Or do you see new things in the market to shorten the mini-rally horizon?
JoeRoss	tip: Wherever possible: Dividends; no or low debt; cash rich; dominate their sector; very much under priced; I don't always get all of those but one thing I must have is that I wouldn't mind owning the company if the trade went against me.
JoeRoss	acman: $1 for the Call and $1 for the shares.
marsh	I read a covered call strategy that kept buying multiple calls as the stock went down.
JoeRoss	Joy: This strategy now is paying as much as 50% but in normal times it pays 12.5% consistently.
Joy	Joe: WOW! You are amazing! Thank you!
JoeRoss	For doing virtually no work at all, 12.5%/year is not bad.
JoeRoss	Once you are in the trade, you don't have to do anything until the calls expire worthless, or the shares are called away, or you find out the calls were worthless, and you now own a stock that is in the hole. But if you don't mind owning the stock, you collect a dividend, and you can sell more calls. It is conceivable that you could end up owning the shares for free.
acman	Joe I was reading up on ex dividends and didn't know you only have to own the stock one day to collect. I am trying to search by dividend dates but not easy to find.
acman	the option premiums are high now but dropping daily as vix drops
JoeRoss	acman: The problem with that strategy is that the price of the stock rises in anticipation of the dividend, and then drops like a rock as soon as it is paid.
jafa	Watch the money for nothing talk Joe, that sounds too much like Bernie Madoff.
JoeRoss	jafa: It is really true and it has happened to me. I sold enough calls and collected enough dividends that my cost was eventually zero.
acman	joe: that is what I have heard. Some of the big dividend stocks I have jumped over 20% today. Caught my attention.
jafa	Sounds pretty slick (in a good way) Joe
JoeRoss	jafa: It's a non-stress way to trade the stock market.
JoeRoss	And it is especially good now with so many really good world dominating companies trading at huge discounts to net asset value.
JoeRoss	I wrote up the whole strategy in TMC 2.06 or 2.07--I don't remember, I'm already writing 2.09
jafa	sounds better than day trading
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JoeRoss	jafa; It's completely different from day trading. If you get your jollies from the excitement of day trading, you won't find that with covered calls. With covered calls the excitement comes from making the money without working.
JoeRoss	I try to write one covered call every day.
acman	speaking of day trading, that avg true range is great. I have graphs of 6 time frames so and pick a time period and use that as a traveler sell and also a traveler buy if I want to get long when the market is taking intraday. It has done well this past week Joe.
tony	Joe....what time is it there. I'm here in Bali....
JoeRoss	It was perfect today in the TF 5 minute chart.
Joy	Joe: You must have a huge portfolio of stocks to write one covered calls a day!
JoeRoss	8:50 PM tony.
tony	OK Joe....it's 10:50 here in the morning....
jafa	Perfect in what way Joe? As I said, I skipped it.
JoeRoss	Joy: After awhile you have a whole bunch of them expiring and you are writing new ones
Joy	Joe: Oh, I see, thank you! You can tell my little brain is trying to allocate my budget :-)
clone	so how far out are selling the calls
JoeRoss	Well, ATR showed 2.5. There was a perfect setup at 08:30 to go long. Prices shot up 3 points, so 2.5 was made quite easily. ATR lets you set your risk and your objective.
jafa	Where do you discuss ATR?
JoeRoss	jafa: Problem was I was looking at the wrong chart, (I'm dyslexic) and I lost on the 30 minute chart when I could have won on the 5 minute. The ATR for the 30 minute was 6 but I was only allowing 2.5. Wrong ATR for the 30 minute chart.
JoeRoss	jafa: we are discussing it right now :-D
acman	It is quite nice, Joe. What is midweek probabilities of market up in morning when close at high like today.
JoeRoss	clone: 1-2 months out.
clone	is their a way look up atr in the archives of tmc?
tony	Average of what time frame....and what average?
clone	ty sir
acman	joe: I was thinking about 3 week out and let expire.
JoeRoss	acman: was that a question?
JoeRoss	clone: I haven't written about ATR in TMC
clone	ok
acman	yes on probabilities. I remember the Friday close high means up open on monday most of time.
JoeRoss	tony: For TF 5 minute chart I use a 20 bar ATR
MartinS	Joe, when will you release TMC 2.07?
MartinS	I am interested in the Eur case
JoeRoss	acman: Fri. close high Mon open higher is a system some people use in the stock market.
tony	Joe...thanks. I'm also working on another version where the tic is the only truth and then taking the tic ...which is around up to 5 seconds while the real time is around 10 to 100 milliseconds.
marsh	I've heard of something like that in soybeans.
JoeRoss	this Fri. We release 2.05. So, two weeks from Fri.
MartinS	thanks
MartinS	12 USD /month?
JoeRoss	Hey everyone. It's my bed time.
acman	Tony: sounds like you could make millions on that information if you could trade it.
MartinS	yes its 4 in the morning here
cumbers	thanks for all your advice
Joy	Joe: Thank you for the wonderful time and lessons!
Joy	You are the best!
JoeRoss	Good night all!
marsh	Good night Joe, and thanks.
Joy	Have a great night, Joe! Sleep well!
JoeRoss	I'm going to vanish into the night.
MartinS	see ya take care everyone
acman	nite joe: thanks for chat.

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Wednesday, February 4, 2009
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