Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Good evening everyone |
| Joy | Joe: Good evening to you! Hope you are doing well. |
| Janna | good evening |
| JoeRoss | I'm doing well, Joy. Thanks for asking. |
| JoeRoss | Here is a riddle for everyone. What is black and white and getting redder? |
| Joy | Oh oh, I don't know :) |
| JoeRoss | Anyone else want to try? |
| JoeRoss | :-( not even a guess??? |
| Joy | Joe: You will have to tell me :-) |
| robtrader | Obama and Geitner? |
| JoeRoss | robo: No, but thanks for trying. |
| JoeRoss | The answer is the newspaper. The newpapers are drowning in a sea of red ink. 3 more filed bankruptcy and it looks like the San Francisco Chronicle will be next. |
| Joy | Oh, that is very smart, Joe :) |
| Janna | lol |
| robtrader | Done in by craigslist. I used it twice today myself. |
| Joy | Joe: I guess that means we should short paper companies. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I stole it out of Business Week, with a slight modification :-D |
| Joy | Joe: You are very clever! |
| Joy | Joe: The way ES H9 and TF H9 opened/closed today does not seem good news for the market - not even a rally but a weak correction. |
| JoeRoss | I also read that Honda's sales are down 87%. I should have waited to buy my CRV. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I wrote about exactly that in this week's chart scan. In it will be a way to tell if we are going to have a rally. |
| Joy | Joe: It's amazing how thin the margin must be in the car industry - as soon as the sales dropped by 1/3, they are in 'red ink'. |
| Joy | Joe: YEAH, I cannot wait to read it! |
| marsh | The daily chart for TF looks bearish. A doji with the open, close both near the bottom of the bar, with a Rh TTE to go south also. |
| Joy | marsh: Yes, thank you! That is very insightful for chart students like me :-) |
| JoeRoss | Nevertheless, we are overdue for a rally of some sort. How many more sellers can there be? |
| marsh | This could also be a 123 forming to the upside. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: very possibly. |
| Joy | Joe: I read your writing in November 2007 that the Dow break to new highs in 2004 was near the beginning of wave 3 for a wave counter. I have not studied the Elliot Wave theory, but I wonder what you see the stock market is now in terms of waves and its meanings. |
| JoeRoss | Sooner or later the shorts will start buying to take profits. That should unleash a flood of buying by bargain hunters. Look for volume to dry up on falling prices. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I'll tell you a story. |
| Joy | Joe: All right! Love to hear your stories. |
| JoeRoss | Loretta and I were walking on the beach in the Bahmas, in 1996. Loretta asked me what is this stuff about Elliott Waves? |
| JoeRoss | So I explained to her about 5 waves and then an ABC correction, etc. blah, blah, blah. |
| JoeRoss | We kept walking and she didn't say a word. |
| JoeRoss | Finally after about 20 minutes, she said, "I don't believe it. I just counted 7 waves coming in." |
| JoeRoss | That's about what I think wave theory is worth. Just another boondoggle to part aspiring traders from their money. |
| JoeRoss | Robert Prechter was wrong for over 20 years, almost always calling for a market fall as it continued to rise. He missed the entire 1990s rise in the market. |
| Joy | Joe: LOL... I love Mrs. Ross... she has a great sense of humor, just like you! |
| Joy | And I am glad I did not spend any time reading the waves theory - I got your teaching - and that is the best. |
| JoeRoss | Well all the way back she kept counting waves. One series of waves she counted 9. |
| marsh | One big problem with the wave theory is that any chart pattern can be rationalized as predicted by the system. It becomes an infinite regression of rationalization (aka B.S.) |
| JoeRoss | The strange thing was there were very few series of 5 waves in the whole time we were walking. |
| Joy | LOL... too funny! |
| JoeRoss | :-D Yay, marxh |
| JoeRoss | marsh |
| JoeRoss | I almost turned marsh into a marxist |
| Joy | Oh no, we don't want that :)- |
| marsh | No problemo, comrade. He already is. |
| Joy | Oh dear... look what we have done. |
| marsh | Marx and Engles: Maintaining free markets is the only way to prevent overproduction in one or any sector. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: is more like Groucho than Karl. |
| Joy | Joe: Not to take up everyone else's time... but may I ask a quick question about taking the second-time through? |
| JoeRoss | sure you can ask, but that doesn't mean I'll have the answer. |
| Joy | Joe: You will :-) Sometimes when the price breaks out the congestion area, and before it retraces back to congestion, it would have made a new low/high (i.e., a new Ross hook.) |
| Joy | If the market carries real momentum to break out the original/previous Rh again, I can jump ahead of the new Rh as soon as the price takes out the previous Rh the second time. Is that right? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: That's right. |
| JoeRoss | And it will work.... until it doesn't ;-) |
| Joy | Joe: THANK YOU! See, you have the answer :-) as always. |
| Joy | Hi to our friend, acman! |
| marsh | Another way to look at 2nd time through. After they clean out the suckers with stop running, they take the market on it's ride, so mostly they make all the money. |
| acman | Hello Joy. Great to see you are on and have answers now. |
| Joy | marsh: THANK YOU! |
| JoeRoss | It's amazing how many people look exactly alike in this chat. I guess they just want to be anonymous. |
| Joy | acman: Hi, good to see you too! No, it is Joe that has the answer. |
| acman | They have no avatars! |
| Joy | Maybe we should ask acman (the oil man) if the crude oil is turning for a rally for real :-) |
| JoeRoss | acman: They want to stay in the shadows: the look-alike grays. |
| JoeRoss | They are pretending they're not really here. |
| acman | Pickens was on tonight and says it will be at 75 before 40. I haven't been watching oil. |
| Joy | Joe: you are funny tonight. |
| acman | Hopefully they don't trade like that. |
| JoeRoss | acman: I have been watching and it is slowly sneaking up on $50, as supply is being cut back by OPEC. |
| JoeRoss | yay for Janna, I like her avatar. |
| acman | Pickens was right when people didn't think it would go above 60 last year. |
| Joy | WOW, Janna is very pretty! |
| JoeRoss | Beautiful I would say. |
| Joy | Who is Pickens, acman! |
| Janna | thanks |
| acman | T boone pickens. Big oilman |
| JoeRoss | Hey gray people: all you have to do is click on "Action" and choose an Avatar. Then we can have a look at you. |
| Joy | acman: THANK YOU! |
| JoeRoss | I think Pickens is right. I gave a trade based on that in The Traders Money Club this morning. |
| acman | Great, everyone is coloring up! They are choosing avatars |
| JoeRoss | Hooray for that handsome robtrader |
| JoeRoss | Terry looks good too |
| acman | Nathan must like to trade cod oil. |
| Nathan7 | lol |
| JoeRoss | Hey have you ever seen a purple Bell Pepper? I planted some yesterday. |
| robtrader | I'm happily married Joe. Don't get any ideas ;-) |
| JoeRoss | :-D |
| Joy | Joe: Purple bell pepper? I bet they are healthy. |
| JoeRoss | I planted yellow ones too. |
| acman | Sounds good. I can't grow anything due to hungry deer. They will eat everything but a very few plants. |
| JoeRoss | I've been eating the last of my 2008 beet crop. Beets are really good for your heart, blood pressure, and circulatory system. |
| Joy | Joe: That sounds delicious! I am so glad for you - I am going to move in as permanent renter/student for all the great vegetables you have! |
| JoeRoss | acman and marsh is it raining where you are or am I just hearing wind? |
| JoeRoss | You can work for your tuition, Joy, and at the same time learn to be a farmer. |
| marsh | I don't know, I'll look. |
| Joy | Joe: All right! I have got a heavenly deal. Thank you! |
| Joy | Joe: You wrote about TIPS in your recent blog and Chart Scan. Are TIPS 'securities' or 'treasury bonds/notes"? I got a little confused :-) but want to learn more because of the inflation-fighting factor and yield you mentioned. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: TIPS may be neither. TIPS is a statistic that shows how much of our debt offerring is being bought by foreigners. OOPS! I got that wrong! TIPS are Treasurey Inflation-Protected Securities. |
| marsh | It's not raining actively here, but water is dripping from the roof, so it must have been. |
| robtrader |
Joe, on a more serious note, I just recently got introduced to your website and products and am very impressed with what I learned so far. In fact, I bought your emini ebook an hour ago and just started reading it when this chat started. Can you talk a little about your thoughts on scalping or short term time frames these days?I'm getting decent results the last three weeks or so as a relative newb getting in and out in 2-3 minutes and snatching a couple of points. |
| JoeRoss | robtrader: You are a man after my own heart. What you are doing is what I usually do with the stock indices. |
| Janna | hey Joe, I was just wondering where you think gold is going? 12 top? |
| Janna | Joe, Oil as well? Do you think it is going to have a consolidation for a while? |
| JoeRoss | Janna: Gold has to go very much higher. So right now is a buying opportunity. I don't see how we can avoid a terrible inflation with all the funny money that's being printed. |
| robtrader | I've been working with the 5min, 1 min and a 344 tick. I also get a lot of use from a 13 period moving average for direction and support. |
| Janna | Joe, Why does it have to? since its a safe play for investors? |
| JoeRoss |
Janna: Oil is altogether a different story from where I stand. Early this morning, around 2AM i was listening to a prophecy about the U.S. becoming independent of Middle East oil. It is a very long story and it is complicated, but I believe there is a good liklihood that some time this year a very profound discovery is going to be made that will free the U.S. from dependency on OPEC oil. |
| JoeRoss | janna: why does what have to? |
| Janna | profound discovery? |
| Janna | Yeah, I believe the US is doing everything they can not to rely on OPEC oil. |
| JoeRoss | Janna: it's too long for me to elaborate on here in the chat. It took 1 hour 36 minutes just to hear it all. |
| Janna | anywhere we can look it up? |
| robtrader | The gold trade seems almost too obvious, but with everyone struggling to pay bills and stay employed, there will be very little inflationary pressure. Wages will be down, if anything, for years. |
| JoeRoss | Janna: I don't know any place where the prophecy is written down. |
| JoeRoss | it was something I listened to. |
| Nathan7 | I heard Russia bought 90 tons of gold not too long ago. |
| JoeRoss | robtrader: If gold continues to rise it will be from people buying it and holding onto it. |
| JoeRoss | It will also be from people losing confidence in paper currency. But there are other factors involved that could completely turn the tables on gold and oil. |
| marsh | The people in India will have to be convinced not to sell at $1000, or at least buy back when it continues to go past $1000 |
| Joy | Joe: I also read hedge funds are piling into gold as a play against paper currencies. |
| JoeRoss | I suspect that a lot of people including myself, are going to be very much surprised at how, what seems to be an insurmountable mess, actually turns out. |
| acman | I looked at those silver morgan dollars and figured I will keep them |
| acman | The ones I bought last year. |
| JoeRoss | I have begun writing about it in TMC 2.13 |
| Joy | acman: Yes, I am sure that is a good idea. Joe wrote about how the spot prices for gold was way higher than the futures, too. |
| JoeRoss | Hang onto them acman. They are like an insurance policy. |
| acman | Thanks Joe, I will. |
| JoeRoss | acman: You can store them in my backyard :-D |
| acman | I like them in a climate controlled safe! |
| JoeRoss | acman: My back yard is climate controlled. (hint, hint) |
| acman | funny |
| terry |
one thing that concerns me about all this talk about the inflationary effect of printing money is this - Money supply is a function of paper money plus other things but most importantly its velocity of circulation. i.e how quickly it os turned over. My thought is that until circulation is brought back to normal there can not be an inflationary effect from printing. I am not saying that printing money is necessary good. Please comment. |
| Joy | Joe: Remember I will be your student-farmer that digs around to plant vegetables ;-) |
| acman | I can see metal detectors scanning your yard! |
| JoeRoss | Joy: If you dig up any silver Morgan's they probably belong to acman. |
| Joy | LOL... Joe/acman: You are TOO funny!! |
| JoeRoss | terry: You sound like my economics professor. All I know is that there is nothing behind all those dollars that are being created out of thin air. If you or I did it we would be put in prison for counterfeiting. But the govt. is printing as fast as they can. And it's money we don't have, and it's a mortgage against the future. |
| acman | They hold up better than paper money. Paper money turns to dust in 3 years if it gets wet. Microbes chew it up. It is neat to see a silver dollar 130 years old with all the detail from the mint! |
| JoeRoss | True works of art, acman: Those engravers are really great artists. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: they say if you plant a silver morgan with every carrot, it makes the carrots grow bigger and taste better. And I know where to find a good supply of silver morgans. |
| Joy | Joe: Really? That is wild? The mineral content of silver for carrots? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: guaranteed you will never get sick or die. |
| JoeRoss | silver is a powerful antibiotic. |
| acman | I just managed to get my metal for my roof and the price dropped back but still higher than last year. All of my equipment in the AC business is at best holding year ago pricing. When this economy even stabilizes a little, all of that money is going to chase a limited production so prices should spike up and then taper off at higher levels than now. |
| Joy | Joe/acman: Since we want to keep Joe forever to teach us, we need all of acman's silver in the backyard now for me to plant carrots for Joe! |
| JoeRoss | Amen to that, Joy |
| acman | Glad you mentioned carrots. I just drank a glass of carrot juice as we chat. |
| JoeRoss | acman's dreams all have a silver lining. |
| Janna | now you can look at charts all night, lol |
| Joy | Joe: Another chart question? I saw your teaching on combining a bullish descending wedge pattern with TLOC. Does it matter how steep the angle of a wedge is? |
| acman | The latest antimicrobial duct is out now to stop mold and it has some silver in the composition. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I flunked drafting class and also geometry. So I really don't know if it matters. |
| Joy | Joe: LOL! I cannot imagine you flunk any class... but THANK YOU! |
| JoeRoss | It's true Joy. I was a real problem in school. I hated it. |
| acman | Joe: those patterns show up all the time in various markets. Wouldn't it just be relevant to the time frame you are trading? |
| JoeRoss | acman: I agree it would be relevant to the time frame. |
| marsh | Janna, as Joe has pointed out in his writings, the angle depends on how you set up your chart. So Gann angles, etc. are silly. |
| Joy | Joe: You were too smart for schools! |
| JoeRoss | it's that magic hour when I wish you all goodnight and a great life. |
| JoeRoss | See you next week. |
| Joy | Joe: THANK YOU as always for a wonderful hour! |
| Janna | thanks for your time Joe |
| JoeRoss | We are hoping for rain for the next 3 days. |
| Janna | Hopefully talk to you next week |
| Joy | Sweet dream, Joe, and enjoy the spring rain! |
| acman | See you Joe. I will have my solar water heater up next week! |
| marsh | Thanks, Joe, see you next week. |
| terry | thanks for letting me in |
| JoeRoss | good night all. |
| Joy | Kiss goodnight, Joe! |
| robtrader | thanks joe. nice meeting you tonite. i'm going to devour the ebook now. |
| Hi Nathan. Good to see you on again. | |
| Nathan7 | Hi |
| Philippe joined. | |
| Joy | acman: Is the business starting to be busy for you now that spring is under way for Texas? |
| Philippe | hi all, hi joe |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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