Chat with Joe Ross

Chat log from: Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time!

	JoeRoss joined.
JoeRoss	Hi everyone
Joy	Joe: Good evening! How are you doing tonight?
JoeRoss	I'm doing fine, Joy, how about you?
Tony	Good Morning Joe.....it's hot here in Bangkok.....it's gonna be a hot time in the old town tonight.
Joy	Joe: That is wonderful! I am great because I am here to see you and learn!
JoeRoss	It was pretty warm here today as well.
JoeRoss	I had to turn on the fan
Tony	Joe....do you remember that in the old days.
Joy	Joe: If you don't mind me starting the questions :-) May I ask if you use certain criteria when trading off a reversal bar?
Joy	For example, do you use rules that specify where the close must be in the range of reversal bar or where next bar’s open must be relative to the close of the reversal bar?
JoeRoss	No Joy, nothing like that.
Philippe	Hi all
Tony	Explain to her ....JOe.
Joy	Joe/Tony: Thank you :-)
JoeRoss	Tony: You mean the old days when you turned on a fan to keep cool?
Philippe	Joe, how was your Birthday? we had same day
Tony	Joe....we didn't have a fan.....didn't have electricity even.....in fact the back house was just down below the hill.
JoeRoss	Joy: The only thing I do with reversal bars is to make sure they come at the end of a swing or trend and that they have at least 2 segments preceding them. Segments as in segment counting.
JoeRoss	Phillippe: we both had a great day, you and me.
Joy	Joe: Thank you! When you say '2 segments', do you mean two legs (2 higher highs), for example, in an up swing? SORRY for my ignorance...
JoeRoss	Just be able to consecutively connect two lows in a up swing with a reversal bar at the end to go short
JoeRoss	Take a look at the daily chart of the emini russell and you will see exactly what I mean, it happened today.
Joy	Joe: Thank you for the great lesson! As usual, I am grateful for your patience!
mikemc	Hi Joe, I am a bit new to spreads. Have a question: on the SBV9 - SBK9 trade example in the most current email, what would be the expected draw down, say for one, or ten, contracts? It looks like the projected risk is $350 per contract. would that be correct? tx
JoeRoss	mike: most allowable draw down is 1/2 the spread margin.
Tony	Joy....the close should be below that low of the 2 legs.....otherwise above that could be a possible congestion or a continuation.
mikemc	Hi again, most allowable, by the broker or for a stop on our part?
Joy	Tony: Oh, I see it now... THANK YOU!
JoeRoss	mike, the broker has nothing to do with it. It's entirely on your part.
mikemc	gottcha
mikemc	Hi again,
Tony	Joy.....that low can get lower as time goes along ....especially in a congestion....so you have to keep an eye on that low...
mikemc	also on on the SBV9 - SBK9 trade, is there an entry on a 123 breakout (or on a ross hook). I don't really see that on the chart. of course, retrospect is everything.. tx
Philippe	Joe, linear regression can be used for foresight, or only hindsight? I'm a little confused here. If I catch a swing right at the start, and start the linear regression from there, can I use it to follow how the swing develops? Hope I'm clear...
Joy	Tony: THANK YOU SO MUCH! I will remember the lesson and learn to observe the lows in congestions.
Tony	Joy....so you have a range from that low to the high where it turned....so you can have a congestion range in between the two.
JoeRoss	mike: I think Andy said it is a very aggressive trade and if you want to be more conservative wait for a 1-2-3 low
mikemc	ok, makes sense.. tx
Joy	Tony: Right, I understand. I remember Joe's teaching about prices are in a range from its last highest high to its lowest low and etc...
Joy	Joe: May I also ask a question on the relationship between intraday and daily volume?
Philippe	mike, which market is the sugar traded?
sagev	Joe, did you take bite of that birthday cake?
Joy	Joe: THANK GOODNESS you are back! I thought the guys would be mad at me for scaring you off!
mikemc	Phillippe, I don't really know. tx
mikemc	Joe,
mikemc	Joe, On the RBK9 - RBU9, I would be waiting for a pullback, a minor trend up, and hopefully a breakout and or a hook. Wait for a turnaround..
JoeRoss	Susan brought me a wonderful tart for my b'day
Joy	Susan is wonderful!
sagev	Joe, my birthday was yesterday
JoeRoss	mike: Wait till you see it doing what it is supposed to do.
JoeRoss	I got to see my grandson. Susan brought him for a visit.
JoeRoss	Actually that tart was the only thing I ate yesterday. I was really hungry when she brought it
JoeRoss	Happy birthday sagev
Joy	Joe: You need Mrs. Ross to keep healthy snacks around for you :-) we don't want you to go hungry.
sagev	Are you teaching your grandson to trade the Ross Hook...lol
sagev	thank you
JoeRoss	welcome to the chat if you came in late
JoeRoss	sagev: He will be a trader, that's for sure.
JoeRoss	He already traded in his clean diaper for a smelly one.
sagev	Well I am sure he will be a great one
mikemc	Gotta go, happy bday Joe.
JoeRoss	thanks mike
JoeRoss	have a good evening.
Philippe	Joe, can i use linear regression to foresee the development of a swing, if i start the regression from the swing? Or liner regression is only good for backtest?
mikemc	!!
JoeRoss	philippe: Linear regression is only accurate a very short time in the future
sagev	Joe, what is the best time frame to trade on Russell 2000 and what is the best pattern to trade
Philippe	yes, i know, very short time. but i was not sure of ok for future or only past
JoeRoss	90th percentile for one time period ahead, but begins to drop off drastically by the 5th period forward.
JoeRoss	philippe: You don't need it to see the past, you just look at the chart. Regression is used to guess at the future.
Philippe	ok thanks joe
JoeRoss	sagev: there is no answer to your question other than that the best time frame is the one where you (not me or anyone else) makes money.
abc1234	Can you please explain entering on 1 min chart after you get a signal from 5 min. chart on e-mi
sagev	I understand that ....but do you find more patterns in 60 min bar charts or should i say more defined patterns
JoeRoss	abc: what's to explain? You get the signal on the 5 minute and you enter on the 1 minute. I don't know what else to tell you.
JoeRoss	sagev: More defined to do what?
abc1234	do you need a 123 formation on 1 min or still support and resistance
JoeRoss	abc: You are taking the signal from the 5. That's where the 1-2-3 has to occur, not on the 1.
Joy	I was looking at the GLD daily and intraday charts yesterday. Although prices made a higher high and higher low, the "daily" volume was lower than prior days’ volume. Therefore, I am interpreting yesterday’s price action as possible short covering and filling the gap – not a bullish turn.
Joy	However, when looking at the "intraday" chart, I noticed the bid volume was 20x as much as the ask volume during the closing minutes. Can that bid-ask volume difference be used an indicator of bullish sentiment?
sagev	More defined meaning Ross Hooks ..123 etc
Joy	Or should I stay with the longer trend (larger time frame)?
JoeRoss	Joy: It can be bullish if it is consistent
JoeRoss	sagev: You will find more 1-2-3s on a 5 minute than on a 60 minute and more 1-2-3s on a 1 minute than on a 5 minute. But none of that makes the trading any better.
JoeRoss	or worse
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! I understand and will look for consistency then when studying the volume relationship.
JoeRoss	Joy: I would stay with the longer trend
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU!!!
sagev	i see ...so you get more juice from a longer time period pattern than a shorter time period
JoeRoss	sagev: Yes, absolutely. For example, a 1-2-3 on a 1 minute chart is probably not going to result in a big move and very unlikely to even offer the chance to cover costs and take a small profit.
sagev	yes ...because i was trading on small time period and it's hard to cover the costs alone
JoeRoss	sagev: You move to a time frame that enables you to comfortably carry out your trading strategy.
sagev	Joe I noticed just the breakout of previous 60 min bar gives enough to make you some money
JoeRoss	If the time frame gets too big you may not be comfortable with the risk. If the time frame is too small you may not be able to make enough money to make it worthwhile
JoeRoss	sagev: you can make even more with the breakout of the previous daily bar, and more even than that with the breakout of the previous weekly bar.
abc1234	Your day trading the e mini book is fantastic. Is there a way I can brainstorm with other members who have the book. Thanx
sagev	Exactly....yet we are so focused on short term time periods
JoeRoss	abc: Get onto our forum for buyers of the e mini book
abc1234	thanx
JoeRoss	sagev: I'm not focused on short term time periods.
JoeRoss	I can't tell you how many times I have traded the breakout of yesterdays high or low or the breakout of 2 days ago high or low or the breakout of 3 days ago's high or low
sagev	I was referring to the masses in all futures
JoeRoss	I day trade those breakouts and I am one of the masses.
Joy	Joe: I learned this afternoon in the Euro chat there would be another eBook to be released on trading the stock indexes.
Joy	If I am interested in day-trading QQQQ or ETFs like QID and UWM, can I just use the method taught in the eBook “Day Trading the E-mini S&P 500”? Or is the new eBook more applicable for day trading the ETFs for cash indexes?
JoeRoss	Joy: The new "e-book" is a method called "Mini-Max." It's not a book. But you can use what's taught in the E-Mini S&P 500 eBook to trade the ETFs.
JoeRoss	But you will have to put up way more margin.
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! I am sorry to have misunderstood - it is a new method... I got it now.
JoeRoss	Joy: It's called Mini-Max and it works in all of the stock indices. Now you know everything I know about it.
Philippe	When is this mini max coming out Joe? I am interested
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU for sharing your vast knowledge with us!
JoeRoss	philippe: I think maybe next week or the week after.
sagev	Joe .. do you still think that currency futures is better than forex in trading.
JoeRoss	sagev: No, I don't think so.... I know so!
Joy	Joe: Thank you for the TMC lesson on oil/gas and the tip on USO last Wednesday! I have a question on the better ETF to position trade in light of the rising oil prices.
Joy	Will legislations like the CO2 law threaten oil services companies more? Therefore, is it safer for us to trade off a ‘proxy oil’ ETF, like USO, instead of an oil services ETF, like XLE?
sagev	Joe, Thanks for the informative chat and have a great bday.
JoeRoss	Joy: I would prefer to buy Oil Service companies that I know are solid and can ride out the storm. For instance, RDC, BJS, and PKD
JoeRoss	thanks sagev
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU VERY MUCH!
Joy	acman: Hi my friend, how are you?
JoeRoss	Wow it's time for bed already
JoeRoss	Good night and sleep tight everyone.
Philippe	thx Joe, gnight
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! And a late Happy Birthday!
Joy	Sweet dreams and love to you!
acman	joy: great. installing the solar water heater. Hope to have operational in a week.
JoeRoss	I've been learning Russian this week.
Joy	WOW!
Philippe	priviet Joe
Joy	You can teach us next time, Joe.
JoeRoss	Я тебя люблю
acman	goodnight Joe: great chat
JoeRoss	Let me know when you figure that one out.
Joy	:-) Oh no...
JoeRoss	I have two Latvians who live in Germany and who speak Russian and I'm trying to teach them in English :-D
JoeRoss	Good night.
JoeRoss	It's a real trip!

Next Chat with Joe Ross:
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.

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