Chat with Joe Ross

Chat log from: Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time!

	JoeRoss joined.
JoeRoss	So what's happening out there?
trippenlatin	hello, can i ask a question about the ym m9 ?
JoeRoss	Anybody know how much of our energy currently comes from wind and solar?
Joe Ross	Just letting you know I'm now on Twitter ..... http://twitter.com/TraderJoeRoss
BillC	not much
JoeRoss	trip: Sure, ask that's why we're here
JoeRoss	Less than 1/6th of 1%
sunny12	Joe, I was wondering about how that will affect crude
Joy	Joe: Good evening! Hope you are doing well!
trippenlatin	cool, time frame 11:40 to 2:15 cst today
trippenlatin	5 min chart
trippenlatin	at 12:10 got short on what i thought was a ross hook and got burned...any thoughts?
trippenlatin	1150 was the hook and 1210 was the break of it
JoeRoss	trip: not much you can do about it other than to keep your loss as small as possible.
trippenlatin	should i have reversed after the 1200 high was broken?
JoeRoss	sunny: The price of crude will be at $200/bbl in the not too distant future
BillC	Joe, question, do you care what time of the day it is to take signals? For example, 11:30-1:30 ET, the so called lunch period, do you find signals still work?
sunny12	Thanks Joe
JoeRoss	trip: I cannot say if you should have reversed. You could have reversed if you had the stomach for it and the capital resources. If you would have taken private tutoring with me, you would have reversed because there were multiple entry signals there on the chart.
streetsamurai	so good idea to buy XOM while cheap?
trippenlatin	sunny: u day trade crude?
trippenlatin	joe: thanks
sunny12	yes I do trippenlatin
JoeRoss	bill: I care very much about the time of day I trade. I will not even entertain looking at any market between 11:30 and 1:30 ET
BillC	ty
JoeRoss	street: Yes, buy it and hold, and you will have a happy future.
sunny12	I think we are in a consolidation phase this week
BillC	That is what I am doing and I noticed my success rate has gone up substantially
JoeRoss	Bravo, Bill
TrickorTreat	Hi Joe, say I looked into the trade we discussed last week and the furthest out that I could find so far is March 2011 and it is just about at the money, if you will...I suppose I should wait for the June contract and attempt to go as far out of the money that I can go for the least amount of money; but, it is not a few cents, as such
trippenlatin	what about at 1410 when the ym broke the high but then fell, any way to avoid that loss?
JoeRoss	Hi Joy, didn't see you come in. I've been reading the script from a fascinating speech on energy made by the CEO of Questar/ O
JoeRoss	I'm going to run a series on it in the Traders Money Club.
JoeRoss	trick: What you are able to do with the option is going to be a function of what your broker will let you do.
JoeRoss	I am using IB and I can't get very far into the future, but I did find Puts for .015 each
t.kaderavek	Good morning all
JoeRoss	I think it was December 2010,
trippenlatin	here is a crude question...at 945 on the 5 min chart there was a ross hook, anyone take the trade and if so how did u manage it? or did anyone trade crude after the number and how did u manage the chop?
TrickorTreat	very nice, was it very far out of the money? must have been
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! I hope you have had a chance to have dinner! Cannot wait for your series on TMC! Woo hoo!
TrickorTreat	i found the March 2011 at man financial
Joy	t: Good morning to you! So nice to see you! You are staying up very late or getting up very early :)
JoeRoss	trip: I don't see why anyone would have taken a loss if they were long at 7960. If you had a loss then you are not managing the trade correctly
trippenlatin	aha, true, i got long at 7960 but also added at 7992, that was my mistake
JoeRoss	trip: Also the bar that began at 14:15 gave a huge signal to go short and would have given you a ride all the way down.
trippenlatin	yes, i didn't recognize that one, lol
JoeRoss	trick: It was as far out of the money as they were willing to let me have.
t.kaderavek	Joy: getting up very early :-)
JoeRoss	trip: Over the years, I have come to believe that "adding" to a position is one of the dumbest things I can do. I can't really add, all I can do is create a new position with higher risk than the original.
trippenlatin	good point
sunny12	thanks Joe, that's a great tip
JoeRoss	trip: I know that is contrary to what is taught, but what is taught is why 95% of all traders lose their money and leave.
JoeRoss	If you do what others do, you will have the same fate as they have.
Joy	Joe: Back to trip's question on YM, could the 14:10 bar (which took out the double-low at 7948) be a sufficient indicator to tighten stop/ready for exit?
JoeRoss	Joy: Exit from what position?
t.kaderavek	Joe: I have a chart reading question. When you take a look at the GLD weekly chart could you kindly tell me if there is a valid 123 formation. Nr. 1 formed on 2/16/09 nr. 2 and 3 formed on the same bar (3/16/09). Do you confirm? If yes then we have a potential Rh, if the current week’s bar doesn’t violate last week’s low.
Joy	Joe: SORRY for not being clear :-) exit from a long position assuming to have entered at 13:05, ahead of #2 breakout in the 123L.
philippe	hi all, hi Joe
JoeRoss	t: that's not a #1 point, it's a Rh
Joy	philippe: Hi, ready to write another poem for tonight? :-)
trippenlatin	would the 1235 cst bar on the ym still be considered a rh even though there was substantial sell off?
JoeRoss	Joy the signal to tighten stops on that trade was when the small congestion formed with alternating opens and closes from 13:35 to 13:55
philippe	hi joy, maybe an ode to you, hehe
TrickorTreat	nice, I will go as far out of the money as I can go, if you will
JoeRoss	trip: absolutely, yes
JoeRoss	It became a hook the moment the bar following it failed to make a higher high.
BillC	Joe, I took that long trade this afternoon on the ES and I saw where it hit the extreme high price and consolidated. I did get out but now I know what to look for on the alternating open and closes. Great help! Thanks!
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! Yes, the small congestion was a much earlier signal. Thank you very much!
t.kaderavek	See Joe, that is what I have still a little confusion about. I thought that the bar from 3/16/09 made a higher high and the next week's bar made a higher low. And because of that higher low }from 3/23/09 we would have #2. That thinking is obviously wrong. For the #2 to be in place we would need a full correction, right??
JoeRoss	trick I haven't made the trade yet. I've been really busy, I now have 62 open positions going in covered calls and naked put. this is the time when I am putting them on for expiry at 5/15
JoeRoss	t:. a full correction AND A 1-2-3 MUST BE AT THE END OF A TREND OR THE LEG OF A SWING!
trippenlatin	on the crude 5 min how would you handle the time from 1245 to 130cst...i am having a hard time in this type of environment?
t.kaderavek	THANK you Joe. So to be completely clear - if this week's bar violates last weeks high, then the last week's low has a potential to become #2. Correct?
sprink	Joe,on the long Dec HO-short July HO spread.Do you think it's going anywhere?
JoeRoss	trip: I wouldn't handle it at all. I do not trade during the NY or Chicago lunch times.
trippenlatin	but the contract closes at 130est
trippenlatin	230 est 130 cst
JoeRoss	sprink: I have no opinion. With spreads it is a wait and see proposition. seasonally it should work. Reality, maybe yes, maybe no.
JoeRoss	sprink: I try to not have an opinion in the market.
JoeRoss	At least I don't trade my opinion
JoeRoss	trip: I do 100% of my trading in the first 1.5 morning hours. Most of my trading is done and over within the first 20 minutes.
trippenlatin	nice, i would love to do the same
Joy	acman: How are you my friend? Glad to see you make to the chat earlier tonight!
JoeRoss	I can teach you, trip.
trippenlatin	ok, what are the steps?
JoeRoss	The steps are come to Texas for private tutoring, or we can do it over the Internet--Live.
trippenlatin	i live in houston, so i am pretty close
philippe	sprink, the spread HO, is it both dec and huly 2009?
JoeRoss	Then drive up and you will be amazed at what I show you.
sprink	Yes
trippenlatin	ok, do i send you an email?
JoeRoss	trip: support@tradingeducators.com
acman	Joy: hi. I am nearing completion on the solar water heater system. I added 7 valves so I can test it and determine BTU output. Marsh was trying to get the program working to monitor the temperatures but wasn't successful yet. I have expanded the project quite a bit but have it under control finally. Not having to do late night shopping for parts now.
Joy	Joe: When I looked at the intraday volume of UWM (Ultra Russell 2000) today, I noticed the selling at the climax late this afternoon was close to triple the normal amount during profit taking this week.
JoeRoss	Good observation, Joy
Joy	Is an intraday price-volume relationship like that a sufficient indication that (1) today’s prices were simply engineered upward by insiders who really intended to sell?
Joy	AND (2) the stock market (at least for Russell 2000) is heading to a congestion or trend reversal?
philippe	re the HO spread, my feeling is that it will still go down for 1 or 2 days, then turn up
JoeRoss	Joy: You are asking me to guess. I don't have any way to be certain.
philippe	probably Joe will think it's very daring to have an opinion based on a maybe ;-)
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! I understand. Sorry to have asked you to guess :)
JoeRoss	Yo philippe: I don't believe in maybe, baby
sprink	It looks like it's going to make a small 123
philippe	me neither, but I keep my eyes open in case things turn like I think they would ;-)
philippe	Joe, nasdaq composite is in a congestion, right? What would u do I? Just wait and see where it breaks? Take 2 positions and cut the wrong one on a break?
acman	Joy, what time frame you looking at? I am watching the accumulation at each cent which isn't time based. Do you get level 2?
JoeRoss	philippe: Wait for the break
philippe	thx J
philippe	oe
philippe	Joe, in your experience, how many touch up or touch down before it breaks with a clear cut? I guess 3 to 4 touch? or is there no such "law" ?
Joy	acman: Thank you for the tip! I was looking at a 15 min-chart. Unfortunately I don't have level 2 data.
JoeRoss	philippe: From experience, 4 times and then through
philippe	ok thanks
philippe	almost time... Joe, what is the tip of the day?
JoeRoss	philippe: Buy Family Dollar, and sell Macerich
philippe	alright thanks
philippe	i saw Fanny Mae CFO shorted it definitely...
Joy	philippe: Yes, that is terrible! Doesn't Joe call it the ultimate stop loss or something like that?
philippe	ahah, good one
philippe	he was sure a bad guy who bullied his friends at school anyway, to come that far.. so, well..
JoeRoss	It's time for me to leave y'all. But I enjoyed visiting with you
sunny12	Thanks Joe
philippe	Thanks Joe! have a nice night and take care
acman	16.79 to 17.40 trading range. We are in a traders trick territory and the uwm should go past the high of last week tomorrow. The adv/dec ratio was slammed to the negative for over a day and today wasn't a top. Graph the adv/decl with uwm and watch the peaks of the adv/dec ratio on an intraday back 3 weeks or so. It gives a great picture of the market. Look at where on the daily chart. I have been hitting a really high percentage looking at these.
streetsamurai	thanks joe
JoeRoss	Good night all
sprink	Thanks Joe
aussiebrett	thanks Joe
acman	thanks Joe

Next Chat with Joe Ross:
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.

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