Chat with Joe Ross

Chat log from: Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time!

	JoeRoss joined.
JoeRoss	Hi everyone
aussiebrett	good evening Joe good evening everybody
Joy	Joe: Good evening! I hope you had a lovely afternoon planting and a wonderful evening so far!
Joy	Hi aussiebrett!
aussiebrett	hi Joy
JoeRoss	Joy: I planted some of my geraniums. And I harvested peas and lettuce. :-)
Joy	Joe: WOW! Fresh spring veggies for dinner! That is great!
JoeRoss	Now I'm fricasseeing a chicken.
JoeRoss	I don't know how to spell that.
JoeRoss	fricassee
Joy	Joe: WOW! What a chef you are! Cheesecake for Thanksgiving and now chicken for dinner!
Joy	Joe: If I may, can I disturb you with some trade questions? Or will you burn your dinner? :-)
JoeRoss	The chicken will cook for 2 more hours---verrrrrry slowwwwwly
JoeRoss	Fire away with the trade questions.
Joy	Joe: :-) Thank you! The WN 9 - WK 9 spread was declining against the usual seasonality but just shot up today like crazy.
Joy	When you see a spread chart just takes off like that, would you manage a spread trade differently (for example, more or fewer lots, shorter or longer time stops) based on how fast the underlying futures are moving and how willing the spread has been moving up?
JoeRoss	Joy: I like to see a spread actually working. Then I jump all over it.
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! I like that! Great advice :-)
JoeRoss	Manage as usual--no difference.
Joy	Joe: While we are talking about wheat, I am curious if there can be a reverse relationship between grains and meat. That is, if a meat group price declines due to external factors (i.e., lean hog from Swine flu) and may have less demand, could the grain used for feed also see price decline against seasonality?
JoeRoss	Joy: the grains (corn and beans) are directly correlated to the price of meat.
JoeRoss	That's why they have spreads like the "cattle crush" and the "hog crush"
Joy	WOW! What a name! I wouldn't want to be the little piggie getting crushed :-) THANK YOU Joe!
Joy	acman: Hi my friend, how are you? Did you know Joe harvested new peas and lettuce already today? Isn't that great?
acman	he beat the rabbits and insects to them!
Joy	:-) That is so funny and so true, acman!
JoeRoss	No, I just know how to keep them away. I spray them with hot mustard and hot chili pepper. The animals won't touch them
Joy	Woo, spicy!
acman	Gotta watch that you may attract mexican workers roaming the area.
acman	Joe: what do you think of the direction the interest rates took today. Seems like they should have gone the other way!
Joy	Joe: Yes, and it seems Euro and all major currencies (JPY is the exception) bounced right back and still closed the day strong, after the initial shock of Fed announcement this afternoon.
JoeRoss	acman: I was really surprised. Eurodollars went up and bonds went down on the same piece of news
Joy	That cannot be good news for USD.
JoeRoss	I think we'll see the dollar begin to descend by the 4th quarter of this year--give or take a few weeks.
acman	That makes sense if other countries keep their interest rates higher than us.
Joy	Joe: You taught us in the afternoon chat that Norwegian Kroner would be the strong currency this year. Do you plan to gain positions by owning either a currency fund or a CD from EverBank?
Joy	Are there other options to own Kroner?
acman	may be an etf. not sure
JoeRoss	Joy: I already bought mine about 3 months ago. I bought bonds.
Joy	Joe: Bonds! How smart! Are they government issued bonds? Would you mind teaching us more in TMC type of writing?
JoeRoss	Joy: Yes Norwegian govt. bonds
Joy	THANK YOU Joe!
JoeRoss	You can buy them through any bond broker.
JoeRoss	Maybe even through Everbank
Joy	Joe: Great advice! THANK YOU as always!!
JoeRoss	Or, if you have a foreign bank account you can buy them that way
JoeRoss	everyone living in the US should have a foreign bank account if at all possible.
JoeRoss	even if it's just in Canada
acman	that is hard without a foreign passport.
Joy	Joe: Yes, I remember reading your teaching about it. I am definitely going to get myself organized to do it. Canada is close enough!
JoeRoss	Not hard at all. Go to Canada and open an account with Royal Bank of Canada
Joy	acman: I wonder if those online banks/internet banks may do the trick for us too.
JoeRoss	The Canadian banking system is the #1 model banking system in the world.
JoeRoss	Not a single Canadian bank has had any problems whatsoever
JoeRoss	In all of this banking crisis
acman	THeir banks don't have as powerful of lobbyists rewriting rules.
Joy	WOW! Impressive! They neither bought or sold those toxic debts - very interesting!
JoeRoss	They are the safest banking system in the world
Joy	Joe: Thank you for the Ross Hook lesson in the Chart Scan a week ago! You also taught us how to identify the matching congestion.
Joy	I am sorry I have not got to the book you teach matching congestion in detail. So may I ask briefly, what the significant points of matching congestion are, Joe? For example, does a break out through a matching congestion area represent more momentum?
Joy	Than breaking out through a non-matching congestion area?
JoeRoss	Joy: Yes it is a momentum move
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU so much!
Joy	Joe: May I ask another question related to congestion area?
Joy	In the book “Trading Optures and Futions”, you taught how to use trading range as a major entry signal. For trading range, you taught us to anticipate a short-term first breakout, followed by a correction.
Joy	Do you try to trade the reentry of the range?
JoeRoss	Joy: It depends on what kind of trade I'm making
Joy	Joe: Thank you! Do you mean if your objective is scalping vs. longer-term position trade with a trend?
JoeRoss	Joy: Yes, but also if I'm trying to create an option strangle, or something else
JoeRoss	Here's some stuff on Canadian Banks: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) are among only seven banks worldwide that still carry a Moody’s AAA credit rating. None of the five largest Canadian banks has cut its dividend since WWII. And despite plunging more than 35% collectively since peaking in 2007, Canadian banks have outperformed essentially insolvent international banks like Citigroup and Lloyds by 30% or more.
JoeRoss	The Toronto-listed iShares Canadian Corporate Bond Index or XCB holds 54% of its assets in senior Canadian bank debt. This exchange traded fund (ETF) is probably the best value in investment-grade bonds accompanied by an attractive yield and trading only 5% above its 52-week low.
JoeRoss	The ETF’s biggest holdings include Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and The Bank of Montreal. Another plus: the Canadian dollar has plunged by a third against the U.S. dollar since last July along with other currencies amid a massive de-leveraging process.
JoeRoss	But, the C$ will surely go up when the US dollar begins to go down, or if oil and gold prices rise
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! Yes, the XCB chart looks very impressive!
netwonc	Joe, don't Canadian banks have more regulation that US banks?
acman	Time for watching weekly cd chart. Maybe do a futures contract.
JoeRoss	wonc: Yes, they are better regulated than US banks
acman	Is the xcb the bonds or the bank etf?
netwonc	Is that why they are not having the problem our banking system is having?
Joy	acman: What I see on the stockcharts.com is labeled as "iShares CDN Scotia Capital All Corporate Bond Index Fund".
JoeRoss	acman: they are iShares Canadian Bond Indxs. XCB. The CUSIP Number is 46428P101, on the TSE
acman	TSE is Toronto stock exchange?
JoeRoss	That's the one Joy
JoeRoss	acman: TSE is as you say
Joy	Joe: Thank you! I think we all may move to Toronto with you before moving to China ;-)
JoeRoss	I think it's a buy up to C$20
JoeRoss	A few days ago I heard from a wonderful Chinese lady who used to be my broker. Lisa Xu. She has her own website.
JoeRoss	And her own trading software which uses ancient Chinese methods for trading.
Joy	WOW! I believe it! Ancient Chinese were very advanced in math and science.
JoeRoss	At the end of May my Chinese franchise lady is coming to Texas for a visit.
Joy	Joe: How fun! If I remember it right, you are the grandpa of her new baby!
	t.kaderavek joined.
netwonc	does her software incorporate your methods?
JoeRoss	Lisa Xu is quite the lady. She's a real powerhouse.
Joy	Joe: Is Ms. Xu still a broker in the US?
JoeRoss	She came here to the US knowing no one, and not speaking any English. But look at what she has achieved.
JoeRoss	Joy: She's not a broker any more.
JoeRoss	Is any more, one word or two? anymore or any more?
acman	joe: I noticed it looks like market is topping out. tick very high today and adv/decl high.
acman	Is this the blow off after 8 weeks?
JoeRoss	acman: Maybe a small correction is coming
Joy	Joe: Ah, thank you! Yes, as I was thinking of you today, Joe, you have dyslexia and trouble reading bar charts. Others would use that as an excuse - but you succeed anyway. It just shows when there is a will, there is a way.
JoeRoss	acman: There is a strong indication for DJIA to go as high as 10K
acman	hopefully a correction first. I closed everything today.
JoeRoss	Joy: Lisa Xu looks like you: http://www.xyfinancial.com/page/page/4729389.htm
Joy	Joe: Do you mind teaching a bit more? When I see the YM chart, it looks like in congestion to me. What indications do you see?
Joy	Joe: Oh, thank you for finding her website! This is so awesome!
JoeRoss	Joy: It seems to be breaking out and resuming an uptrend. Actually the trend really never ended.
JoeRoss	Gosh it's that time
JoeRoss	Thanks for a lovely chat
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! You are as wonderful and amazing as always!
JoeRoss	I better go check on my fricassee
acman	thanks joe.
JoeRoss	I can smell it all the way up here.
Joy	Hope your chicken cooks well - many love and kisses!
netwonc	later , Joe, good night
JoeRoss	Yum
Joy	Yum yum!
JoeRoss	Joy you can teach me about Yi
Joy	Joe: I would love to! Better study her writing first :-) She trades RUT 2000! It is great!!
JoeRoss	I really admire her. But I always have known her as Yan Xu. She's a single mom, and did all this while raising her son who is now 7
JoeRoss	good night all
JoeRoss	c u next week

Next Chat with Joe Ross:
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.

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