JoeRoss joined.
JoeRoss	Wow! This looks like a happy group!!
da-net	medications were delivered on time. ::biggrin
JoeRoss	Good evening everyone
JoeRoss	Looks like we had a bit of down action for stocks todayh
JoeRoss	Not all but some.
aussiebrett	good evening Joe ,good evening all
Joy	Joe: Yes, and there was a bit of up move toward the end of afternoon for the e-minis. Was that mere profit taking, Joe, or anti-plunge protection team at work?
JoeRoss	I hope everyone got the announcement about the live seminar in October. After thinking it over, we decided to hold it in Dallas, which is easier for most people to reach, than is Austin. Details on our home page: www.tradingeducators.com
Susan	Mr. Ross how would you recommend trading bonds via the tlt or tbt and options at this point?
JoeRoss	Joy: My guess is profit taking. But I was tied up all day writing TMC, and doing some other stuff. I traded a lot on Monday--put on 13 new positions.
Joy	Joe: THANKYOU! 13 new positions, wow! All options?
Joy	Joe: And yes, I took the survey and am excited for the opportunity to learn from you in person!
JoeRoss	Susan: what are tlt and tbt?
JoeRoss	Joy: yes all options
Joy	t: Good early morning to you! Hope you are more awake than last week ;-)
Susan	Joe, the ETF's one is long bonds and one is short bonds.
JoeRoss	Susan: I don't know which way you want to go, but I would short bonds. The bubble is breaking or has burst, and bonds are headed south
t.kaderavek	Joy: Indeed I am. I just arrived from a late night visit at my friends place.
JoeRoss	Susan: If you want to know your risk for certain, you could buy Puts.
Susan	ok thanks
dfortin	I am long TBT, been a good trade so far but Bernanke seems to want to talk equities down so $$ will flow to the bonds
Susan	Joe, what time frame for puts?
JoeRoss	Susan: Daily
sprink	Joe what are the odds of interest rising before the year is over?
JoeRoss	sprink: Interest rates are already rising.
Susan	Joe, time frame as in 3 months out, 6 months, etc.
JoeRoss	Susan: 6 months or more
sprink	Thanks.I'm starting to buy cheap Euro puts
Joy	Joe: does the stock market look like having a squeeze play right now?
Joy	Or do prices need to make higher highs as the market moves sideways for a while and then the strong players take the market up first before they sell at high?
JoeRoss	sprink: Why euro?
dfortin	at the money or out of the money
JoeRoss	Sprink: Don't you mean eurodollar puts?
JoeRoss	dfortin: Your choice. I think with bond options you want to buy time.
marsh	Bonds went from 140 at the beginning of the year to 116 yesterday. Quite a fall.
JoeRoss	dfortin: At the money is the most expensive put you can buy. If you want to be that close to the price action buy them in the money. At least you get some intrinsic value.
JoeRoss	marsh: they are gonna go a lot further.
streetsamurai	Joe, if Treasury bond bubble breaking where do you think money will flow? hard assets?
JoeRoss	samurai: Hard assets and emerging market shares.
sprink	The last time in the 90's when interest rates went up the Euro dropped like a stone and the put premiums shot up
Joy	Joe: I saw something about Brazlian ETFs. Is that the type of emerging market shares? And are you trading in that? I remember you mentioned being interested in income-generating right now.
JoeRoss	sprink: That was true of the eurodollar, not the euro. The euro didn't exist then.
sprink	Sorry thhat's what I meant
JoeRoss	Joy: Brazilian ETFs are good. So is Malaysia, Indonesia, even Viet Nam.
streetsamurai	Joe do you think gold can pass the 1000 dollar barrier, over the past year seems to be a good contrarian play to short gold every time approaches 1000?
Joy	Joe: WOW! Thank you for a great list! Speaking of, did you have a good visit with your representative from China last week?
Joy	Yeah, acman is here! Good evening to you, my friend!
acman	hello. Great week!!!
JoeRoss	samurai: I think this time I think gold may break thru. But first a correction--the usual up and down thing with gold.
JoeRoss	Joy: we had a wonderful time with Song and Li
acman	that silver gold ratio sure did well. I didn't trade it because I didn't want to but it made about 5k this week.
JoeRoss	I think we created a real bond between us.
Joy	Joe: That is wonderful, Joe! I am glad you enjoyed the visit!
JoeRoss	Hi ho Silver. Silver is set to soar.
acman	I remember looking at her site a few weeks back. Pretty neat.
Susan	Joe, in general, what were your 13 new trades on Monday?
acman	I just thought I better stock on my silver/phosporous weld sticks. They hit $90 per pound last year and are now around $50
JoeRoss	Mostly short Puts
JoeRoss	AA, AUY, PSS, CPN, GMR, BJS, IP, AUK---Some others, too. A few of those were covered Calls.
t.kaderavek	Joe: I have a psychological question for today - In your webinar and books you talk about deploying a time stop. For me easier said than done. When I enter on TTE it sometimes happens that prices do not reach my first profit objective and instead a congestion develops. After two 5 minute bars I should close the position. But when I am in red numbers (50-70% of the original protective stop) I have a hard time to close the position, especially if my original protective stop is above the upper range of the congestion and I feel the congestion could be taken out in the original direction of my entry. DO YOU HAVE ANY ADVICE ON THIS ISSUE, PLEASE?
sprink	Joe did you break a hundred positions
marsh	In a month, the gold/silver spread made about $10,000.
JoeRoss	t. maybe you are waiting too long. Part of using a stop and trading what you see, is getting out if you don't like what you are seeing. You shouldn't let it get that far away from you.
JoeRoss	sprink: I have to count. I'm close to 100.
Joy	Joe: Speaking of Gold, may I have a related question on volatility blowoff? GC Q9 daily chart shows prices becoming almost vertical in their ascent in late May until the correction yesterday. However, the vertical ascent was short (only a few days) and the prior trend was steady.
Susan	marsh, which spread?
Joy	Does that mean prices are not sufficiently volatile to enter a volatility blowoff-based trade and this is just profit taking in the uptrend?
sprink	awesome
marsh	buy silver, sell gold
marsh	futures
t.kaderavek	Thank you Joe
Susan	yes, marsh but I wanted to plot it and was curious which months
marsh	July Silver, June Gold
acman	susan: you can get the multipliers for each contract at trading-graphics.com and put them into a spread and get the $ amount.
Susan	thank you marsh
marsh	multiply silver by 5000, gold by 100
JoeRoss	Joy: I can't even hazard a guess.
Susan	marsh ok got it.
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! :) I was just curious because I am learning the volatility blow off you teach and noticed currency chart like 6C M9 looked like it.
Susan	thanks acman
philippe	susan the trading graphi links seems to bebroken? thats what they say... cant access0
JoeRoss	Susan: Follow this link: http://www.tradingeducators.com/resources/unitmovetable.html
JoeRoss	just google for gold silver ratio.
Joy	Joe: You mentioned recently you finished revising Spreads and Seasonals over the Memorial weekend. Was it the "Trading Spreads And Seasonals" book? I'd like to get it next, but wonder if the revised edition will be out shortly.
JoeRoss	Joy it's still being edited
JoeRoss	I don't expect it in the near future. But the current version that's out there is still 98% ok
acman	joe: I noticed that the bond vs 10 year and others are at historic levels in the spread. Any spread trades that might be good. I guess this is the yield curve. would US - Ty be good at this point or other closer in be good.
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! And thank you for spending your weekend helping us!
JoeRoss	acman: US-TY is the one I would choose
JoeRoss	acman: The FED can't control US
Susan	The http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/gegsr.html is most interesting.
JoeRoss	with regard to the Silver gold ratio: Silver seasonally rises more than gold in July. Gold tends to fall in July
acman	thanks joe. I was working on spreads this morning and santelli was talking about this on cnbc. He is pretty sharp with interest rates.
JoeRoss	Did any of you get an ad in your email for Silver Spots?
acman	No, I have not.
da-net	silver spots?
JoeRoss	If you do, just substitute the word "Calls" wherever they talk about "spots" and you'll know what they are talking about.
sprink	Nope
Susan	No
Joy	Joe: Should we? I didn't either.
JoeRoss	Sorry! Poor memory. They are calling them Silver Shots
JoeRoss	Joy: No, don't bother with them It's an ad for a newsletter ($250/year), to get you to buy Silver Calls.
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! Silver Shots - very interesting terminology :)
JoeRoss	It's called "Marketing"
marsh	Sounds like a shot of Patron Silver Tequila.
streetsamurai	lol
JoeRoss	You can read about them in the Traders Money Club out this Friday
Joy	Joe: THANK YOU! Your TMC is awesome!
streetsamurai	Joe ever read stock gumshoe he just did a write up on silver shots email
t.kaderavek	I agree with Joy. TMC is really good reading. Thank you for it Joe.
JoeRoss	samurai: I never heard of stock gumshoe, but maybe he's the same guy that sent me the ad
streetsamurai	Yes TMC is great with no "Marketing"
streetsamurai	do not think so he trys to solve the "marketing" from email teasers
streetsamurai	Joe Thank you when will we find out about Dallas live seminar
acman	the bit on oil is way off. The use of oil does not equate to use of renewables or solar. Oil is a carbon sink and drilling 10,000 feet down for a drop of oil, burning it and calling it environmentally the same as getting energy from proven sources like the sun is rampant propaganda. The sun in 1 hour dumps more energy on the planet than all the manmade power sources on the planet in a year and doesn't pollute by burning up oxygen, creating heat and CO2. That was in a TMC article.
JoeRoss	samurai: We are looking for a hotel.
JoeRoss	As soon as we can make the arrangement we will let everyone know.
acman	love to give some figures on that solar energy stuff.
acman	Joe: I will email them in the next few days.
JoeRoss	acman: Why are solar panels so expensive? Do you have any idea? In South Africa we had a huge Siemen's solar array, and it wasn't 1/10th the price they want around here to put solar on your roof.
JoeRoss	In Israel, there are solar water heaters everywhere you look
acman	Joe: the only thing I can think of is that the US is so pro OIL that the government has been actively pushing all alternatives off for their own profit. Interestingly enough, I just went to New Mexico for training, colorado has training. I go for a few days next week for solar training in NY. None in Texas (oil country). Even Madison Wi has solar training. UT texas in austin has no solar program but in other climates they do!
starbucks	solar water heaters were common in FL in 1900 before cheap oil discovered which killed the trend toward wind which was taking off then.
sprink	acman how efficient are these panals?
acman	I guess the past president would rather fight wars for oil than really have an energy policy that would support alternatives. I hope to have an HVAC system run by my solar heaters by years end. THe university in Plano tx actually has developed a AC system that uses heat for fuel.
JoeRoss	acman: keep me posted, I'm interested.
acman	sprink the evacuated solar tubes are 96% absorption and the transmitted heat to the medium is in the mid 80% range!
sprink	wow
acman	The past flat radiator type is only 43%
sprink	ok they mad einprovements
JoeRoss	With our solar array we were generating enough electricity to run a small village
acman	cheap oil had nothing to do in florida. In the 1940's the utility companies actively dissuated people from solar to electric water heaters! 45% of florida houses had solar water heat in the 40's
JoeRoss	Can you imagine what we could have done with solar tubes?
acman	I am running 125 degree water here in austin with 1/2 the tubes needed for winter. The excess heat in summer will run electric generators, heat in winter into the ductwork.
Joy	acman: That is amazing! I will have to fly you to the East coast to install some for me! :)
sprink	acman what does this cost to install?
starbucks	Well acman, why did they do it?
acman	There is a prison in NY that has their showers done by these tubes.
acman	The cost retail is 5 to 6k with a few thousand profit. the rebates are running 2500 in austin with electric water heat.
JoeRoss	I have to go, but please keep on chatting. I will read what you wrote tomorrow at about 3AM. Good night all :-D
	JoeRoss left.
acman	The net cost is less than 4k after rebates. That gives free hot water for decades.
acman	electric water heat costs at least $50 per month.
sprink	acman,how much space do these tubes need?
t.kaderavek	Interesting stuff acman. Do you have some websites where this can be studied / bought?
acman	tubes are on roof and are about 3" diameter 5' long. weight is around 50 lbs with 20 tubes and have no wind resistance.
acman	they take in sunlight from all directions and just produce heat except when rain and fog. Cloudy they produce heat just not as much.
sprink	Thank you
acman	The stagnation temperature tested is 320 degrees F for 3 days.
acman	The company I am getting some equipment from and is a leader in this is sunmaxxsolar.com they have similar tubes to what I got for myself but they are large enough to modify them for a bit more efficiency and they have gone through the full certification.
acman	sprink where are you?
sprink	right here thanks alot
t.kaderavek	thank you acman
acman	hope is there with this stuff.
starbucks	thanks for info acman - been into solar since a kid.
acman	All of this modern controls, the manufacturing processes to produce these tubes on a mass scale, >1m per month should reduce the fossil fuel use for heating!
starbucks	concentrated solar plant for the home. :)
acman	with about 60 tubes a house could be heated, cooled and have hot water.
acman	simple thermodynamics. If you can get 96% absorbtion of energy for free, you can do something with it!
acman	the solar electric is good but it only produces about 15 to 20% into electricity, then convert DC to AC, then sycrhonize with power plant frequency, then feed into house or back to grid. This doesn't have any conversion. Hot to cold and do what you want with it.
acman	starbucks you in US or in advanced solar rest of world?
starbucks	KS, USA
acman	not much solar there but if you don't have alot of heavy cloud cover you still get alot of solar.
acman	This solarmaxx did 2 hotels in colorado.
starbucks	90's and early 100's in summer and good wind farm locations, a number going up here.
acman	these tubes are tested to 140mph so wind is no problem. Check out that site and see the possibilites. The wind is good, but doesn't heat water and houses without alot of conversion.
starbucks	Big Siemens 200 employeee turbine nacelle plant going being built near me. Onsite tubes, no electicity heat transmission loss. Simple. Sounds like onsite panacea to me, clearly the future. This is like a large concentrated solar heat power plant, just on site.