Chat with Joe Ross

U.S. Chat log from: Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time!

	joeross joined.
joeross	Good evening one and all
ashleyt	hi Joe
kunlex	Good evening Joe and everyone
marsh	Hi Joe
marsh	Hi All
pc2003	Hi
joeross	The dollar rally did some strange things to various markets
joeross	But, it didn't help the stock market
joeross	Twas the night for the chat and all through the house not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
joeross	the names on the left were all there to see but no one was chatting, not even me.
ashleyt	dollar rally isn't helping anything i'm invested in. Grains and metals
joeross	ashley: that is waht is so strange
Philippe	hi all hi Joe
ashleyt	thank goodness for put options
joeross	ashley: Yeah. They all took a dump. I'm glad I'm double short the euro.
joeross	thank goodness for ETFs
marsh	After having bad charts for a long time, grains and meats have been looking pretty good.
joeross	Soon the commodities will be flying high.
ashleyt	ya i'm hoping with the strong dollar and the grains rallying to finish about even on the day shows a bottom.
joeross	The flight to bonds causes buying of the dollar--europe has a lot of people scared
joeross	It's amazing, the treasuries and the dollar are still considered to be safe havens
ashleyt	how long do you think the strong dollar will last?
joeross	ashley: I don't have a clue. it might be as long as Europe is in trouble. That could take a year.
ashleyt	i can't even believe i'm saying strong dollar lol
joeross	True :-D
ashleyt	i can tell you one thing Joe, i really am missing the TMC. That was great information.
pc2003	What's TMC?
joeross	ashley: I'm missing writing it. I was really thinking about it a lot this evening.
joeross	For awhile I published Traders Money Club, an economic letter and stock advisory.
ashleyt	If this is a democracy which its not, my vote would be to start them up again. Its hard to get information like that from a trusted source.
joeross	ashley: I may in the future. But I can't right now. I just have too much on my plate. Although I live from my trading, in order to keep Trading Educators going we have to support a staff. Income has been down, and so we are busy looking for ways to bring in revenue. TMC didn't bring in much considering the time it took to produce it.
joeross	Hi tony, we haven't seen you in a long time. Is all well?
joeross	Hi nathan
ashleyt	yes, i'm sure it took a ton of time. That info. was deep and eye opening.
tony	Joe....when did they let you out?
joeross	tony: the year was 1935
joeross	My mother pushed me out! :-D
tony	That was the year they put me in.....and I didn't do it.
tony	Joe...I'm getting tired of praising you....
tony	That is on other forums.....
joeross	Keep up the good work, tony. We need fresh blood.
tony	Will try...
Philippe	Joe, do you know if it works well to use Linear Regression as a signal to exit a swing? I ve been trying to use it with various results
joeross	Philippe: I've been trying for years to get something useful out of linear regression. So far it has been a collosal flop.
Philippe	i found good results when i update the period, the period can be updated according to the moves of RSi for example
joeross	I once had the brilliant idea that since linear regression is accurate to the 90th percentile going one time interval forward that I could use it to safely sell options. But it didnt' work.
Philippe	ah yes, sound like good idea
Philippe	i found interesting things though. if yiou take the start of a swing, change ur linear regression so that the lowest point of it is the starft of the swing. will shos u interesting periods and exit signals
Philippe	also, things like trhe RSI period adjusted to the LR slope
joeross	I took a best fit (LR) moving average of the highs and one of the lows. I made each bar be 3 weeks so that I would be getting the greatest amount of decay time on short-dated options. But it put them so far out of the money that there was virtually no premium available, or no buyers at those strikes.
Philippe	ok, well, i will keep looking and if i find anything worth it, i will dorp u a mail
joeross	Thanks Philippe
Philippe	thx u 2 for sharing ur experience
ashleyt	I've been trading for 9 years now. The only CONSISTANT thing that i have ever found to work is taking TTE entries no matter what the time frame or the market and take 1/2 profits quick and let the other 1/2 go with either a trailing stop or just use a big target and forget about it. With second 1/2 on a BE stop.
joeross	Theoretically it should have been a fantastic way to write options. So much for theories.
joeross	ashley: you are man after my own heart.
joeross	It's so simple and so effective
tony	Joe....what kind of a TP(target price), EP(entrance price) and SL(stop loss) do you use????
tony	Is it the length of you P1 to P2?
joeross	tony: I use Average True range to show me my risk (stop loss). I use 1/2 that for my initial target. Entry is based on any one of 5 setups.
tony	EP.....1/4 of P1 to P2.
tony	Can you explain the 5 setups....?
joeross	tony: I spend most of one day at the seminar teaching the 5 setups and how they relate to market dynamics and the law of charts.
joeross	I don't think there's enough time in the chat for that. Besides it's a visual kind of show and tell thing.
tony	I understand Joe.....I also have a 5 set ups......on the premise that there are only two kinds of markets and only five kinds of trade....this is from my mentor Charles Drummond and his Point and line Methodology.
joeross	Sounds good, tony.
joeross	I never have read anything by Drummond.
tony	But yours is more simple....
joeross	When i put it all together, it hands me a perfect trading plan. I know the risk, I know the target. I know the time frame, and i know which market. I know where to put the stop, and I know how many contracts I can trade. I know where the market is probably going next, why, and how far. All i have to do then is have the self-control to follow what the market is telling me. I teach how to do this at my seminars and in private tutoring.
acman	A friend of mine just moved over to ameritrade and said they had 200 indicators to choose from. He is doing really well by just a simple regression line and a 2 standard deviation from that line. He plays the extremes. Pretty simple
acman	Kudos Joe. That is the best way.
joeross	I think I could teach what I do to a 5 year old. The problem is teaching adults.
tony	Joe....I made mine in commodities over 20 years ago....I'm on the forex market (inspite of you're against it.).....and I think the futures is easy than the currency market (forex).
joeross	tony: I'm not against forex. I'm against the brokers and banks that cheat and rob the traders. I use forex all the time. Right now I'm in USDNOK and USDAUD
tony	Joe....can I ask you what broker you have (money makers) ....or is that too private?
joeross	tony: I'm using Interactive Brokers for forex, and stocks
joeross	I would like to use Infinity Brokers but they don't do forex or stocks
tony	Are they the same as money makers?
joeross	tony: Your order is filled with SMART. It goes to the best price they can get from an ECN
tony	Joe: Well....your warning, which I use to put on other forums...is true. These money makers can do all kinds of fancy stuff. The worse are the guys in Hong Kong.....
joeross	tony: I have heard they are the worst
ashleyt	Joe, the coolest trading i think i ever saw was the guys in the s&p pit arbitraging the big contract with the mini's. That looked like fun. Stressful but fun. I hear guys talking about arb plays all the time. Have you ever found anyway to arbitrage that is worth your time? i've done some dividend arbitrage but it's not really worth it since its such a small return and hard to get the positions put on, plus i can't ever get filled with any size.
tony	Joe: Since I'm here in Bangkok (during the winter).....so I have to deal with those guys up in Hong Kong and Japan....they have given me hell.....Heh, Heh, heh....that's them....then they go back to their chop sticks and slurp their soup from the bowl....heh, heh, heh.
joeross	ashley: I always felt that arbitrage was not my business. You have to be real big, real fast, and be willing to take a few ticks. You really need a Bloomberg direct access terminal to get into that business.
joeross	In the past you need to be right there in the pit to arbitrage
ashleyt	Joe i remember you said once you were trading a options strategy that was about as safe as it gets. Are you still doing that? And if so, will you be teaching that in any seminars?
joeross	tony: We may all be dealing with those guys in Asia, if the Congress has anything to say about it. They will regulate trading right out of the US.
joeross	Have you heard that the CFTC now wants to limit forex trading to only 10 times leverage?
tony	Joe; Yeah....but there are voices up in Mass.....that might be the beginning of something new.....whoopee.
joeross	tony: the CFTC isn't Massachussetts. The CFTC is trying to cover its own (M)ass
joeross	Everyone is used to 100 times leverage and greater. They'll leave here like rats from a sinking ship.
joeross	ashley: i am still teaching the option strategy but only in private tutoring.
joeross	About the only seminar that people will come to in the US is for day trading
acman	yeah with the high tax rate.
tony	Joe: I didn't know or hear that about CFTC.....can you explain exactly what you mean that only 100 times leverage.....you mean no other type of leverage?
ashleyt	Joe, thanks for the chat, got to get the kids to bed. I usually don't get to come because we are in church on Wed.nights. It got cancelled tonight because of the ice storm. Thanks again for you time Joe, it is appreciated. nite
joeross	tony: Most forex brokers give you100 time leverage. That is you put up 1,000 to trade 100,000. Some go as high as 1,000 to trade 200,000. But the CFTC want to lower that by 1/10th. You would have to margin up 10,000 to trade 100,000.
tony	Good night ashleyt......it's morning here in Bangkok.
joeross	I have to go too.
joeross	See you in a week.
acman	Good night, good morning, good afternoon. Have a great week
joeross	Have fun and good night all
marsh	Thanks Joe. Good night.
rick1	good nite.
tony	OK....Joe. Thanks.....maybe they might be right. No matter which way you slice it....it's a loss.
	joeross left.

Next Chat with Joe Ross:
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.

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