By Marco Mayer on Thursday, 21 April 2016
Category: Trading General

Where's EUR/USD going?

There seems to be a massive obsession out there among traders about the EUR/USD, what's going on with it, where it's going and why. Whenever I go on twitter or Facebook or any of the financial news pages, I find at least a couple of posts on what's going on in that market, usually with some bogus comment on why.

Classic one would be "EUR/USD moves higher after breaking through 1.1350" or "EUR/USD likely to keep on moving higher since it could hold current levels."

Today of course the focus is more on the ECB, so instead of the technical nonsense you find more news-related reasons for each 10 tick move. Now who's reading that stuff and why? And how does it help anyone in trading? Are these people actually trading or is it just a cult of analysts and hobby chartists? To be honest I don't know and I don't really care. But my advice to you is to turn off anything that might manipulate your view on a market and focus 100% on your setups.

What I care about is how my setups are performing in each market, and Ambush for example had a really good time in EUR/USD so far in April, here are the latest trades in the Euro Future trading one contract (no commissions included):

Now regarding where the EUR/USD might be going, here's my take from a chart's perspective: Right now it's in no man's land, trading back and forth in a relatively tight range (green lines) within a much wider trading range (red lines). Unless it at least breaks out of the smaller range, it's unlikely we'll see a significant movement in this market and right now if you're a discretionary trader there are probably much better markets to trade out there that give you clearer moves and more bucks in relation to your trading costs. Having said that, statistically the odds are starting to rise that we'll see a breakout since the market has been barely moving for weeks now...

Happy Trading!


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