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Where's EUR/USD going?

There seems to be a massive obsession out there among traders about the EUR/USD, what's going on with it, where it's going and why. Whenever I go on twitter or Facebook or any of the financial news pages, I find at least a couple of posts on what's going on in that market, usually with some bogus comment on why.

Classic one would be "EUR/USD moves higher after breaking through 1.1350" or "EUR/USD likely to keep on moving higher since it could hold current levels."

Today of course the focus is more on the ECB, so instead of the technical nonsense you find more news-related reasons for each 10 tick move. Now who's reading that stuff and why? And how does it help anyone in trading? Are these people actually trading or is it just a cult of analysts and hobby chartists? To be honest I don't know and I don't really care. But my advice to you is to turn off anything that might manipulate your view on a market and focus 100% on your setups.

What I care about is how my setups are performing in each market, and Ambush for example had a really good time in EUR/USD so far in April, here are the latest trades in the Euro Future trading one contract (no commissions included):

 

Now regarding where the EUR/USD might be going, here's my take from a chart's perspective: Right now it's in no man's land, trading back and forth in a relatively tight range (green lines) within a much wider trading range (red lines). Unless it at least breaks out of the smaller range, it's unlikely we'll see a significant movement in this market and right now if you're a discretionary trader there are probably much better markets to trade out there that give you clearer moves and more bucks in relation to your trading costs. Having said that, statistically the odds are starting to rise that we'll see a breakout since the market has been barely moving for weeks now...

 

Happy Trading!


Marco

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Comments 5

Jean1975 on Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:22

We can say that the EUR/USD is balancing since the beginning of april.
For the moment it is really going nowhere, there's no directional conviction at all.
But a good trader willing to fade breakouts can make money also in this market

We can say that the EUR/USD is balancing since the beginning of april. For the moment it is really going nowhere, there's no directional conviction at all. But a good trader willing to fade breakouts can make money also in this market :)
Marco Mayer on Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:30

Mario that's a perfect summary, yup! Today is a perfect example with the EUR/USD trading where it started. Too bad I had no orders in for today...

Mario that's a perfect summary, yup! Today is a perfect example with the EUR/USD trading where it started. Too bad I had no orders in for today...
Jean1975 on Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:49

I think that if you staid out from EUR/USD today you did the right thing...
Today at 8:30 AM EST happened the ECB Press Conference.
Personally I'm never in the market during news. Better to stay out!

I think that if you staid out from EUR/USD today you did the right thing... Today at 8:30 AM EST happened the ECB Press Conference. Personally I'm never in the market during news. Better to stay out!
Marco Mayer on Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:59

That's right most of the time yes, better stay away. Especially if you're a short-term day-trader you can get into serious trouble during a news release.

Now for me it depends on the system/method I trade, ie. what time horizon and risk management it has and how I backtested it. Some systems work very well on days where major news come out or news that are important in that market. Other system might be build especially around a news event like the natural gas storage report for example. But of course you have to be very careful here regarding your risk!

That's right most of the time yes, better stay away. Especially if you're a short-term day-trader you can get into serious trouble during a news release. Now for me it depends on the system/method I trade, ie. what time horizon and risk management it has and how I backtested it. Some systems work very well on days where major news come out or news that are important in that market. Other system might be build especially around a news event like the natural gas storage report for example. But of course you have to be very careful here regarding your risk!
Jean1975 on Thursday, 21 April 2016 11:15

I agree. It sure depends on the system / method traded.
I am a 100% daytrader, hence due to the fact that I use close stops I'm always staying aside during news events!

I agree. It sure depends on the system / method traded. I am a 100% daytrader, hence due to the fact that I use close stops I'm always staying aside during news events!
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Wednesday, 22 November 2017

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