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Trading Idea: GFJ17+ZCK17-2xLEQ17

  Today I am looking at a very “strange” butterfly spread: Long 1 April Feeder Cattle and one May Corn and short 2 Live Cattle August. I have to admit that it is difficult to find an entry into this trade by looking for chart patterns but it is easy to see the possible support around the current level. OK, the spread moved a bit lower in July last year but this happened when there was not eno...
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Support and Resistance

I received a couple of emails asking whether or not I believe in support and resistance. In fact, one subscriber said if I didn't believe in support and resistance, then I couldn't possibly believe in trend! Why? Because in all cases the situation ends. Here's what I believe: The trend is your friend until the end. The swing is the thing until it goes "ding." What is support and what is resistanc...
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Do Something Else!

You need to find other things to do while padding the time waiting for better trades. Try to study the markets or different ways of trading, or simply do something completely different like going to the beach. It is critical that you learn to enjoy yourself in ways other than being in a trade. The fact is, if you are trading in a professional way, you are out of the market much of time. So you ne...
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Windfalls

Have you ever find $50 in your coat pocket or receive an unexpected gift from a relative? Perhaps you inadvertently overpaid your credit card, and now have an extra $100 that you didn't think you had? When most people receive a windfall, they feel they can spend it freely, as if it isn't "real" money. The same thing happens when recreational gamblers unexpectedly win a jackpot. They didn't expect ...
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Optimized Entry or Exit

Optimized entry (green vertical line on the chart below) or exit (red vertical line on the chart below) is part of seasonal patterns. For example: the spread X–Y shows a strong seasonal up move in July with an optimized entry date on July 3 and an optimized exit date on July 28. This means “usually” the spread moves up between July 3 and July 28, but this is just based on statistical data of the p...
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Are you an efficient Trader?

Most traders start out with a dream. And usually part of that dream is that once you’re a successful trader you’ll have a lot more time for the things in life you enjoy spending time with. Your family, friends, hobbies, spend time in nature and start other business opportunities you’ve been dreaming of realizing. Besides making money, for many the main reason to start trading is actually that they...
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Do you think that what this guy wrote is true?

“You can get ahead of yourself in this game, and it’s dangerous to get cocky. But I’ve had times where for an hour I could do no wrong. I’m trading and 99 percent of the trades are good, they’re all for 30 or 50 contracts, and I’ll make 10 grand. Then I’ll overextend myself and maybe buy 10 or 15 contracts, fighting the trend just because I know prices have hit a support level. Then prices blow th...
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Jean1975
Mmhhh... Maybe this guy is telling the truth but i honestly doubt that a trader can be consistently successful without being able ... Read More
Sunday, 18 December 2016 15:24
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Looking at how the money supply affects trading in the markets.

There are two important components of federal market activity which affect long- term economic activity and stock and commodity values; these are interest rates and money supply. A contracting money supply was one of the factors that caused the Great Depression of the 1930's. In the early 1980's most traders focused almost totally on the money supply figures, which would cause cash bonds and T-Bi...
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E-Mini Russel 2000 (TF) Multiplier Change

Something you should be aware of if you're trading the TF: Starting today (December 5th) the E-Mini Russel 2000 (TF) has a tick value of USD 5.00 instead of USD 10.00 while the tick size stays the same. For more info see the ICE FAQ. Happy Trading! Marco
Recent Comments
Jean1975
...As CME already did for other products it seems that they need to bring a lot of small fishes in the market. You know, the big b... Read More
Monday, 05 December 2016 11:21
Marco Mayer
Well yes, for sure it brings in more retail traders. But considering the TF is a considered a mini-future it makes sense. At least... Read More
Tuesday, 06 December 2016 02:45
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Simplicity of Trading

Trading requires that you take decisive action. Implementing a successful trading plan quite often requires that you make quick decisions when the right market conditions come into play. The more complicated you make your trading, the harder it becomes to make quick decisions. We all know it can be hard to make trading decisions when your money is on the line. Most of us have a natural desire to a...
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"Once I’ve achieved success as a trader, then what? I’ve heard that after a while trading can become boring."

Question from a subscriber: "Once I’ve achieved success as a trader, then what? I’ve heard that after a while trading can become boring." I know you would all like to have that problem, but I can vouch for its being true. I always have to find new ways to trade or I do become bored. However, I have never run out of ways to trade that remain exciting, at least for a fairly long time. After the ob...
Recent Comments
Jean1975
For sure good trading is not exciting, because long lasting success comes from always doing the right small things day in and day ... Read More
Friday, 02 December 2016 07:14
Joe Ross
Great! You haven't reached that level yet, and maybe you never will. There's another item I haven't previously written about, but... Read More
Saturday, 03 December 2016 08:45
Jean1975
Wow... Outliving the own trading abilities looks like another gift of the Lord! It should be the great cycle of the life. I mean,... Read More
Sunday, 04 December 2016 09:46
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I Find Myself with an Attitude of Gratitude

Dear Friends, Whenever this time of year rolls around, I find myself with an attitude of gratitude. This week we celebrated Thanksgiving Day. Although "Thanksgiving" is not celebrated here in Uruguay, many living here celebrated at various places around the country. There were at least fifty people at the gathering my wife and I went to. Trading and markets have been a major part of my life for al...
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Reaching Your Trading Goals

As a trader, it's essential that you set specific goals. Trading is chaotic enough without trying to achieve unstructured goals that are difficult to manage and reach. Making profitable investments requires you to prepare carefully. You have to develop hypotheses regarding current market conditions. You have to devise ways of identifying setups and determine how and when to enter and exit the trad...
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Launching Ambush Signals

I’m happy to tell you that today a new AlgoStrats service was launched: Ambush Signals for Futures. To find out more have a look at the following video presentation: Happy Trading! Marco
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Develop a Trading Plan

The main message I want traders to understand is how important the disciplined execution of a well thought out trading plan is in today's markets. Nobody knows for sure what a given market will do next. Having a plan of attack will allow you to successfully cope with the uncertainty that is an inherent part of trading. I think it makes good common sense to have a well thought out plan of attack fo...
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Vacation trip to Samaná

From Saturday October 29 until November 5 my wife and I took a vacation trip to Samaná, Dominican Republic. From Santiago, where we live, it takes about a 3 hour drive to get there. I love the region of Samaná because it is still very virgin compared to Bavaro or Punta Cana with only a few hotels. Usually we stay at a hotel on Cayo Levantado, a small island in the Samaná Bay. I love Cayo Levantad...
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As a percent of capital, should I go big or small?

Careful risk management is a key component you being able to trade at your best. Comfort level is really important when it comes to risk. You need to be comfortable in three areas: Emotional, Mental, and Financial. We could even add Physical to that list without having to make too great a stretch. If there is a real danger that you will lose large amounts of capital, or money that you just can't a...
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Overconfidence

When traders are hot and seemingly cannot lose: When they make several trades that perform exceedingly well, there is a surge of human pride. They feel like the pitcher who strikes out the side for all nine innings of baseball. They feel invincible, brilliant, and master traders to say the least. When a trader feels like that he thinks he can do no wrong and make no mistakes. He comes to believe a...
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AlgoStrats:FX October Performance

It’s been three months since AlgoStrats:FX launched so I guess it’s time for a more detailed update on what happened so far. Here’s the up-to-date equity curve of the live trading account: The summary is that we had a tough start and two months of slow, steady drawdown until things turned around nicely in October. Nothing unusual, no problem but hey…couldn’t the markets have given us a slightly n...
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Time

You pay a price for every profit you take with time and effort required to obtain it. Not to mention the years of experience upon which your knowledge and system methodology have been constructed. The slippage, and getting knocked out on a winning trade by one tick have a cumulative mental attrition that can only be offset by constant profits, vacations and other interests not market related. Time...
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