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False Consensus Part 2

​Jim own a Hog farm. He produces 1,000 hogs per month to take to market, so he runs a fair-sized hog operation.Jim grows corn and soybeans for feed. He grinds his own beans into meal, and has silos for storage of both the corn and the beans. In years where the crop of the best quality, Jim stores as much of his crop as possible. If the crop is of lesser quality, he sells his crop in the open marke...

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Talking to Myself

I have to admit I do talk to myself at times, maybe even a lot, especially when I'm facing a loss. Let's say I'm down a bunch of points and it came as the result of a surprise move in the market. The temptation is to think, "I have to find a way to get it back." I hate ending the day down a bunch of money. However, if I give in to that thought, I am focusing on the loss and I'm no longer in the ma...

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Second Look

Second Look

Taking a second look at potential trades at times results in “why didn’t I see this before?”  For instance, what if you are looking at a market as it approaches a support area?  Isn’t it reasonable to ask yourself, “If this market breaks through and I am long, what will I do?”  Ask yourself how such an event would change the picture.  If you have a position, will you still want...

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Trading for a living

Trading for a living involves more than getting in and out of the market at the right time, and more than thinking about moving averages and indicators. Trading is a business, not just a job, and every business in the world has to be managed. Every business involves the managerial functions of organizing, planning, delegating, directing, and controlling. If you, the trader, are to perform these fu...

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Predicting the Markets

“Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” – Bruce Kovner This is an immense important quote from Bruce Kovner. This...

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Derivative transactions, including futures, are complex and carry a high degree of risk. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. For more information, see the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options.