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May
09

Bollinger Bands in a Nutshell

Bollinger Bands in a Nutshell
Markets move between low volatility trading range moves and high volatility trend moves. One of the best ways to see this taking place is with the Bollinger Bands. When a market makes an extremely narrow range move the Bollinger Bands will noticeably narrow together. When the bands narrow down it shows decreasing to low volatility condition on prices. Of course, a low volatility market forecasts a...
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2150 Hits
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May
05

New Q&A Video Online

New Q&A Video Online
I just uploaded Episode 3 of my Questions & Answers Series to YouTube. It covers questions on the usefulness of demo-trading and on trading 123 formations. In the last part I talk about why I developed my own python-based backtesting platform which is probably only interesting for those of you who're hardcore into system-development. So if you're not, just stop there ;)
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1737 Hits
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May
04

3-leg Butterfly Lean Hogs Spread

3-leg Butterfly Lean Hogs Spread
I've got asked a few times about the 3-leg or butterfly spreads we have been trading in Traders Notebook and therefore I want to show you one of our latest trades. What you can see on the seasonal chart below is a butterfly Lean Hogs spread, long 2 contracts in July and short 1 contract in June and 1 short in August. We've entered the spread on June 30 at 0.0 (red arrow), we covered some c...
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3247 Hits
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May
03

EUR/USD Update

EUR/USD Update
The last I did a post about what's going on in EUR/USD and that it's unlikely we'll see a significant move unless the pair breaks out of it's established range. Now that finally happened and the Euro is on a strong run for a few days now already. Now what to do? If you're already long, should you keep on holding the position? If you're not in the trade already, should you still buy at the market? ...
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1858 Hits
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Apr
29

Position Sizing/Measuring Performance

Position Sizing/Measuring Performance
About a year ago I wrote an article about measuring performance where I explained the concept of measuring trading performance in Rs instead of $s. Everyone who trades for a while quickly realizes that $s don't really say too much about performance. You made $10? Maybe great. You made $50.000? Maybe not so good. The question always is in relation to what? What account size does the t...
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2109 Hits
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Apr
28

Can I really make it as a trader?

Can I really make it as a trader?
You alone determine whether you will succeed or fail at trading. You alone are in control; take responsibility for your performance and your life. There are always tremendous opportunities in the markets. It is not what happens; it is what you do with what happens that makes the difference between profit and loss. However, you cannot marry a market or a single trading style. You have to look. Look...
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2140 Hits
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Apr
27

Trading Idea for 04/28: Long Jap. Yen

Trading Idea for 04/28: Long Jap. Yen
As you can see on the chart below, the 90000 level is an important one. It was a clear resistance level in February and March of this year and could now work as support. I'd try to buy the June Japanese Yen one tick above today's high using the TTE with a first target at around 90470 with the idea of a possible 1-2-3 low. I would risk about $300/contract on the trade. Update 04/28, 6 AM CT: The Ja...
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1928 Hits
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Apr
23

Genesis Trade Navigator FX Data issues and how to fix them

Genesis Trade Navigator FX Data issues and how to fix them
Since many of you are using Genesis Trade Navigator, I thought this might be of interest. I personally use TN mostly for Futures Data, and only sometimes for Forex data - when I just need a quick daily chart for example where I don't mind about a few pips difference. But I don't use their spot Forex Data for backtests. Last week Genesis changed the daily closing time of their FX data to 17:00...
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2223 Hits
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Apr
21

Where's EUR/USD going?

Where's EUR/USD going?
There seems to be a massive obsession out there among traders about the EUR/USD, what's going on with it, where it's going and why. Whenever I go on twitter or Facebook or any of the financial news pages, I find at least a couple of posts on what's going on in that market, usually with some bogus comment on why. Classic one would be "EUR/USD moves higher after breaking through 1.1350" or "EUR/USD ...
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5 Comments
Recent Comments
Jean1975
We can say that the EUR/USD is balancing since the beginning of april. For the moment it is really going nowhere, there's no direc... Read More
Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:22
Marco Mayer
Mario that's a perfect summary, yup! Today is a perfect example with the EUR/USD trading where it started. Too bad I had no orders... Read More
Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:30
Jean1975
I think that if you staid out from EUR/USD today you did the right thing... Today at 8:30 AM EST happened the ECB Press Conference... Read More
Thursday, 21 April 2016 10:49
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Apr
20

New Q&A video online

New Q&A video online
I just uploaded the second Episode of my Q&A Series to YouTube. I only managed to answer two questions this time, so I probably should be a bit briefer in the future... Topics are again disciplined trading and the lifetime of trading methods and how to decide when to stop trading them. Enjoy!
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1398 Hits
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Apr
19

Fear

Fear
Let’s get one thing straight. Fear, for the majority of traders is a very real thing. You have it, I have it. Others have it as well. In order to become a professional trader, you must learn to deal with fear. The first step is to acknowledge that you have fear. Once you admit to fear, you can begin to deal with it. When you notice the impulse to trade based on strong fear, it is usually best to l...
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2668 Hits
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Apr
18

Everybody gets what they want out of the market

Everybody gets what they want out of the market
This is one of the quotes about trading that stuck with me. I googled it and it's from Ed Seykota, I probably read it in one of the Market Wizards books, which I can highly recommend. The exact quote is “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.” Now this applies especially well to the retail world of traders. And i...
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4 Comments
Recent Comments
Jean1975
Great post. I don't think that the desire of make money alone will be enough to make you a trader. I think that if you are driven ... Read More
Friday, 22 April 2016 10:55
Marco Mayer
I couldn't agree more! Now most people who come into trading think this is an easy way to make lots of money. But actually it's no... Read More
Friday, 22 April 2016 11:46
Jean1975
In my opinion the hardest aspect of the whole learning process is keeping on trading when you are a consistent loser. I think you ... Read More
Friday, 22 April 2016 12:38
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  4 Comments
Apr
14

Checklist, Trading Plan, Track Record

Checklist, Trading Plan, Track Record
“I review my checklist. It’s a handwritten sheet laminated in plastic and taped to the right-hand corner of my desk where I can’t overlook it. If you have a game plan prepared ahead of time, it can help you find courage in the heat of the battle.” - Marty Schwartz Yes, I also have a checklist and I look at it every day. On my checklist you can find reminders like “trade only clear signals, no gues...
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2694 Hits
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Apr
13

New YouTube Series: Marco's Trading Q&A

New YouTube Series: Marco's Trading Q&A
Hi Trader, now this has been a quite volatile week so far in many markets and I hope you've also been able to capture some nice profits out of these wild moves! Thanks to my trading being almost completely systematic right now I still had a few minutes to record a new video for YouTube and actually start of a new Series. In the first one I explain what a BID/ASK spread is for those of you who're c...
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2139 Hits
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Apr
12

Predicting the Markets

Predicting the Markets
“Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” – Bruce Kovner This is an immense important quote from Bruce Kovner. This...
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2 Comments
Recent Comments
Jean1975
Great post. The ability to follow your plan, make mistakes regularly and execute trade after trade with consistency and disciplin... Read More
Friday, 22 April 2016 12:05
Andy Jordan
Agree with your 2 additional points (and there are probably many, many more) Jean. All this sounds very simple, doesn't it? Until ... Read More
Friday, 22 April 2016 16:09
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Apr
11

Recommended time frames

Recommended time frames
Today, I've received the following question: I assume the Ross Hook (RH) and Traders Trick Entry (TTE) are applicable in whatever time frame the trader uses. However, there are some time frames that are simply too erratic or wild to trade. And pertaining to stop running, there must be some that are favorites of those attempting to do so. So is there a recommended time interval from which to trade,...
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2088 Hits
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Apr
09

Time to sell the JPY?

Time to sell the JPY?
Hi Traders, after a much needed vacation I'm back from the hills where I could hike long enough to get all relaxed and clear headed again! Now back to the markets, when it comes to currencies, everyone is talking about the Yen these days, especially against the USD (USD/JPY). And yes the USD/JPY dropped quite significantly during the last two weeks, but for the Yen this isn't that unusual. Still i...
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2072 Hits
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Apr
07

Stop Management

Stop Management
Richard Wyckoff wrote: “My stop was moved down so there couldn't be a loss, and soon a slight rally and another break gave me a new stop, which insured a profit, come what might… I strongly advocate this method of profit insuring. The scientific elimination of loss is one of the most important factors in the art, and the operator who fails to properly protect his paper profits will find that many ...
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2165 Hits
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Apr
05

Minimum Risk Points

Minimum Risk Points
Richard Wyckoff wrote in his book "Studies in tape reading": Successful tape reading requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side. There are critical points which occur in each swing, just as in life of a business or of an individual. At these junctures it seems as though a feather's weight on either side would determine the...
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1994 Hits
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Mar
31

Trading Enhancements – Meditation

Trading Enhancements – Meditation
As a professional trader, I try to enhance my trading on a daily basis. Learning how to trade is an ongoing process - a process that never stops. Those who know me or who have traded with me know that I am always looking for a simple and straightforward approach to trading. Yes, of course I am testing indicators, new chart patterns, new charting techniques, and anything else that is showing up on ...
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1939 Hits
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Derivative transactions, including futures, are complex and carry a high degree of risk. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. For more information, see the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options.